The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said Reform UK’s plans to raise the threshold for paying income tax to £20,000 would cost between £50bn and £80bn.
PA Media reports Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the research institute, said the announcements on winter fuel and the two-child benefit cap were “dwarfed” by the tax policy.
He told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme: “Those are all significant things, and they are high-profile new public announcements, but actually they are all still dwarfed by some of the big policies that were in the manifesto last year, and today Nigel Farage recommitted to increasing the income tax allowance to £20,000, which depending on details might cost £50bn, £60bn, £70bn, £80bn.”
Where Farage did give some detail in the speech, his rationale for being able to afford it boiled down to “we will do things differently”. He said:
You will all be lined up in your droves to say to me, how on earth can you afford all of this? How on earth can you afford £5bn here or £5bn there, almost forgetting that the national debt is now £2.8tn, and that not just the last government, but this one too, are hopelessly adrift when it comes to government borrowing.
We are going to make big savings. We will stand here before you in one year’s time and show you the excessive costs that we’ve taken out of local government and at a national level.
If we win the next election, we will scrap net zero, something that is costing the exchequer an extraordinary £40bn plus pounds every year.
There will be no more asylum hotels or houses of multiple occupancy. People who come here illegally across the channel or on the back of lorries will not be allowed to stay.
We will scrap the DEI agenda, which is costing the taxpayer up to £7bn pounds a year throughout the public sector. And yes, we see considerable savings to be made amongst the quangos.
So yes, I do accept that these proposals, especially the one of lifting to £20,000 the level at which people start paying tax. I accept that it’s expensive.
But I genuinely believe that we can pay for it because we’re not ideologically tied to the same ideas upon which we believe the Conservative and Labour governments have gone so wrong over the course of the last few years.
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Nigel Farage says prime minister Keir Starmer doesn’t believe in anything, and that “while I don’t bear him any personal grudge, I don’t think there’s any malice in him at all” he did not appear to have a plan for government
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Farage said it is Reform UK policy to lift the two-child benefit cap, and the removal of a universal winter fuel allowance. He says this is “not because we support a benefits culture, but because we believe for lower paid workers, this actually makes having children just a little bit easier for them. It’s not a silver bullet. It doesn’t solve all of those problems, but it helps them.”
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Farage also said that the recently announced deal with the EU is “a total sell-out and something that [Keir Starmer] promised he wouldn’t do.”
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Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has said that removing the two-child benefit cap is “not off the table” as she defended Labour’s record on introducing measures to tackle child poverty
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Labour party chair Ellie Reeves has said that Nigel Farage cares only about his own “own self-interest” ahead of the Reform UK leader giving a speech this morning in which he is expected to call Keir Starmer unpatriotic
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Shadow chancellor Mel Stride has also been on the media round this morning, and also been attacking Reform UK. Appearing on Times Radio, and with it pointed out to him that the Conservatives were currently fourth in national polling, Stride said “Look, where we are is in a multi-party system at the moment, under first past the post”
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Nearly half of all “red wall” voters disapprove of the way Starmer’s government has dealt with benefits-related policy, a poll has found, as ministers faced continued pressure over winter fuel and disability payments, and the two-child benefit cap
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More than 100 of the UK’s most high-profile disabled people have called on the prime minister to abandon “inhumane and catastrophic plans to cut disability benefits”
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The co-leader of the Green party of England and Wales, Adrian Ramsay, has renewed his call for Russia to face greater sanctions. Posting to social media, the MP for Waveney Valley said “Putin has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilians because he thinks he’ll face no consequences
The last question came from the Guardian’s very own Kiran Stacey, who asked Farage whether he thinks the abortion time limit should come down and whether he thinks there should be stricter buffer zones around clinics.
Farage said:
I think issues around this [assisted dying], issues around abortion are all a matter of personal conscience. I am pro-choice but I think it’s ludicrous that we can allow abortion up to 24 weeks but if a child is born prematurely at 22 weeks, your local hospital will move heaven and earth – and probably succeed – in that child surviving and going on and living a normal life.
He added that he thinks the law is “totally out of date” and the current situation is “irrational”. And that concluded the press conference in which Farage challenged prime minister Keir Starmer to a debate in a working men’s club in the so-called red wall.
The Reform leader was typically reluctant to explain in any way how he hoped to get his numbers to add up – and perhaps the coming years of Reform-led local administrations will give the electorate a clearer view on that – but, as usual, his shtick is all about vibes and tapping into a mood of fear and uncertainty across the UK.
He is right about one thing though; support for the two main political parties is collapsing at an unprecedented rate. Whether or not that translates to the ballot box to sweep Farage to No 10 at the next general election remains to be seen.
But, as he says himself: history suggests it is not possible for Reform to win – but current circumstances (and recent polls) suggest otherwise.
It seems to be fast becoming received wisdom that the deputy PM Angela Rayner would be a better match-up for Farage at the next general election – although she has said that she never wants to lead her party.
However, Farage has been asked how he would view her as a potential opponent. He said:
Well, at least she is real. None of the rest are. I don’t think she’s lied on her CV, I’m not sure she’s got a CV. She is who she is.
What we have learned is … her ideas on tax and savings are even more radical than that of Rachel Reeves and she tends, on certain economics, to be way, way out on the left.
Farage was asked how his party would have handled Brexit negotiations with the European Union differently and whether he would undo the progress made recently by the Labour government.
He said the prime minister has never got over the referendum result and says he would not have gone back to the ECJ.
He added:
What I would have done is said what you got from Frost and Johnson is that you were given four years for your fleets to continue to fish in British waters. That was your transition period; you’re out now.
He is now being asked if he really could be the next prime minister and replies:
History would suggest the answer to your question is no. Circumstances suggest the answer is yes. Something extraordinary is happening. The collapse of confidence in two political parties that have pretty much merged.
Farage is now taking questions and asked more about how he is going to pay for his pledges for winter fuel payments and ending the two-child benefit cap. He is asked if he has “a magic money tree”.
He again brings up net zero, DEI initiatives and the costs of housing asylum seekers.
A reporter has flagged that the IMF says “the sums don’t add up”.
Nigel Farage is asked about the row in Scotland over a Reform UK advert featuring Anas Sarwar, and he plays a clip of Labour’s Scottish leader to defend the ad.
He is also asked whether Reform UK’s policies towards married couples suggests he wants the marriage rate to go up and the divorce rate go down. Nigel Farage says “Look, I’m not the pope”. Factcheck not required for that. He says children from stable families do better and he wants to encourage that, although that doesn’t necessarily mean marraige.
He says “It probably isn’t very funny. I can’t pretend we’re perfect” when asked about a Reform election leaflet that apparently depicted “Angela Rayner, Bridget Phillipson and Rachel Reeves as cows said to be sent to the abattoir”. He declines to say whether it was “misogynistic to depict female cabinet ministers as cows, and is it appropriate to suggest that they’re going to be sent to the abattoir if MPs have been killed in recent years?” as Archie Mitchell from the Independent asked.
Nigel Farage finishes his speech by saying this:
What I bring to this now is experience. What I bring to this now is passion. What I bring to this now is a kind of courage – or madness – you can take your own pick, which perhaps you only have when you’ve survived a few close brushes with death and even managed to go through the snake pit while I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here!.
The qualities that I offer are hard work, passion and yes, I’m not afraid of anything. I’m not afraid of a mob. I’m not afraid of criticism, not afraid of protest. I believe that Reform represents a silent majority in Britain. I believe what you’re witnessing is the beginning of a genuine political revolution, something quite remarkable that is happening and will continue to happen in British politics.
And if that means I’m pitted against the prime minister and whoever the leader of the Conservative party may be well, so be it. I think I’m ready for that right now.
As is traditional at a Nigel Farage event, he is going to take a lot of questions from the media. He says there are 18 journalists down to speak. We’ll bring you any highlights that emerge.
Nigel Farage says that the recently announced deal with the EU is “a total sell-out and something that [Keir Starmer] promised he wouldn’t do.”
He describes the situation with the Chagos Islands as “the worst deal I’ve ever seen in my life.”
He then says:
It’s almost unbelievable that he could have done it and not to have even referred to the Chagossian people, who have suffered terrible racism in Mauritius, terrible racism.
And now that this deal is done, they’re now fleeing Mauritius and coming to our country, which they can do, of course, because they are British subjects.
But I suppose to Keir Starmer, racism only comes from people without university degrees. He probably doesn’t think it happens between other races.
Farage also says Labour has also signed up to the WHO pandemic, and “Everything [Keir Starmer]’s done in the last two weeks has been against our national interest.”
As briefed in advance, Nigel Farage has said it is Reform UK policy to lift the two-child benefit cap, and the removal of a universal winter fuel allowance.
He says this is “not because we support a benefits culture, but because we believe for lower paid workers, this actually makes having children just a little bit easier for them. It’s not a silver bullet. It doesn’t solve all of those problems, but it helps them.”
He continues “And I want to emphasise that this is aimed at British families. It’s not aimed at those that come into the country and suddenly decide to have a lot of children.”
He says that people will ask where the money comes from, and says that national debt is now £2.8tn, and says that the party will find savings from quangos, excessive costs in local government, and scrapping what he calls “the DEI agenda” and which he claims is “costing the taxpayer up to £7bn a year throughout the public sector.”
Nigel Farage says prime minister Keir Starmer doesn’t believe in anything, and that “while I don’t bear him any personal grudge, I don’t think there’s any malice in him at all” he did not appear to have a plan for government. He makes a point of saying that Starmer had to refer to his notes a lot when speaking outside Downing Street.
He accuses Starmer of being “clearly without any great feeling, meaning or passion for the job that was ahead.”
Farage says:
This prime minister has no connection with working people, no connection with what we used to call working-class communities. He doesn’t understand what it’s like to get up at five o’clock in the morning and go out and work physically hard for the day.
He doesn’t seem to understand that the tax burden, the cost of living, energy bills, have meant that people genuinely have had a lower standard of living quite consistently over the course of the last 10 years.
He has absolutely no conception as part of the north London set of the genuine damage to community that has been done by mass immigration over the course of the last 25 years.
His leadership, frankly, is dismal. It is uninspiring. It is disconnected from real life. It is, in my view, unpatriotic.
As expected, he has challenged Keir Starmer to go to “a working man’s club somewhere in the ‘red wall’, and we’ll sit there, and we’ll let them ask us questions”
Nigel Farage claims that “the exodus in London and in some other parts of the country is now in full flight.”
He says it is “the biggest brain drain we’ve had since the 1970s, and yet no one seems to have woken up to it.”
Farage says “there is absolutely no contradiction in saying that we are the party of workers but also the party of entrepreneurs. The two can’t survive and exist and succeed without each other.”
Nigel Farage has said membership of Reform UK is now “over 235,000”. He claims “I’m not saying we are already the biggest political party by membership, but we must be very, very close indeed.”
He says “as to the Conservatives, I don’t think many in the media class yet really understand the extent to which they are dying as a political party. It’s over. It is done. They have ceased to be a national party. They are now an irrelevance in Scotland, an irrelevance in Wales, a complete irrelevance in the ‘red wall’ where nobody will ever trust them again.”
He complains that each week at PMQs “an obscure backbench Labour MP gets up and asks the prime minister a question ‘is it true that the honorable member from Clapton is a complete rotter?’” and because of the format he can’t reply.
He says this is a “very low grade government” which is off to the worst start of any government since Anthony Eden. He says he thinks Labour have a problem with their personalities, and slights Rachel Reeves and Jonathan Reynolds. He later says Ed Miliband is “away with the fairies”.
He says the cabinet is “a bunch of lawyers … a bunch of people prepared to bow down to this concept of international law, but without the economic competency to run a country.”
Zia Yusuf, the Reform UK chair is up next. He has claimed Reform UK has experienced over the last year “the greatest political acceleration in British history, and we’re just getting started.”
He thanked supporters and volunteers who he said “stuck their heads above the parapet during an hour of need for their country.”
He says that a year ago Reform UK was polling at 10%, and now it is “polling north of 30%”. He also claimed the number of people paid up to Reform UK has increased eightfold from 30,000 a year ago (which my maths makes 240,000).
He said:
So this is a dark time, no doubt, for our country. There are many people who frankly felt pretty hopeless that no matter whom you voted for, the red team or the dark blue team, you basically got the same thing.
What’s clear now is that there is really, for the first time in about a century, a real, viable alternative. The stranglehold the two old parties have had on British politics is decisively over, and now there is hope.
There is hope for the people of Britain, for millions across the country, that there can once again be common sense, competence and patriotism brought back to Westminster.
And the political class, who, certainly for my lifetime, have failed in their most basic fundamental duty, which is to put the interests of the citizens of the UK first, are facing a reckoning.
He then introduces Nigel Farage as “the next prime minister of the UK.”
Sarah Pochin, the recently elected Reform UK MP for Runcorn and Helsby byelection, has opened this press conference.
She said “The mood of the nation was reflected in the mood of the voters in Runcorn and Helsby, this was their chance to vote for change, and they did in their droves.
“Reform had something to prove. It had something to prove to the political establishment, to the pollsters, to you guys – the press, and most importantly, to the public.
“We had to prove that if you vote Reform, you get Reform. And they did vote Reform, and they got Reform. This was a powerful win and a powerful message. A vote for Reform can no longer be ridiculed or brushed aside as a protest vote by other parties. A vote for Reform means you get a Reform politician in power.”
She said that Reform councillors elected that same night would “make some big changes in the way our local government is run. They are going to bring back common sense to local politics.”
She added “we are the real opposition to Labour. We represent the mood of the country and the will of the British people.”
Parliament isn’t sitting this week, which is often when Reform UK stage their events, as it maximises the chances of getting airtime. You will be able to watch the Nigel Farage press conference here if you would like.
The contents of this press conference from Nigel Farage have been heavily trailled in advance. He is expected to say that Keir Starmer is “a man that puts international courts before British sovereignty” and the “most unpatriotic PM in history.”
He will also accuse Labour of lacking the will to bring net migration down to zero, and claim Labour’s recent deal forging closer trade ties with the EU “betrays the very essence of Brexit.”
The event is expected to be attended by recently elected Reform UK councillors and mayors, as well as their fifth MP, after the acrimonious suspension of Rupert Lowe, Runcorn byelection winner Sarah Pochin.
Pochin was on Times Radio this morning, and PA Media reports she confirmed another element of the Farage speech, that he will commit to more spending on the winter fuel allowance and removing the two child benefit cap.
She told listeners:
A Reform government will completely reinstate the winter fuel allowance across the board. Why should people who have worked so hard all their lives, paid their taxes, they get to retirement, and they get this payment taken away. It’s an absolute betrayal of that generation.
She added that Reform would “support hard working families” with changes to the Married Couples Allowance and the two-child benefit cap “going out the window”.
The MP for Clacton last spoke in parliament on 14 May. We’ll bring you any key lines from the Farage press conference as they emerge.
