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Bill Connelly
Bayern Munich lead Borussia Dortmund by 11 points in the Bundesliga and are nearly on pace for a record point total. Inter Milan lead AC Milan by seven in Serie A. Arsenal lead Manchester City by seven in the Premier League (though City have a game in hand), and Barcelona lead a particularly fragile Real Madrid by four in LaLiga. PSG only leads Lens by one in Ligue 1, but odds are still dramatically in favor of another title for the defending European champs.
There’s a chance we get a great title race or two out of that batch, but nothing’s guaranteed.
One way or the other, however, we can always count on soccer’s superpower: depth. Be it a title race, the hunt for a spot in a European competition or a good, old-fashioned relegation scrap, there’s always something worth following. And with a little over two months remaining in the 2025-26 season, we should have plenty of thrills and anxious moments to come.
– UCL Talking Points: English clubs struggle mightily
– Ogden: Premier League giants can’t afford to finish outside top four
– Connelly: Ranking the best teams in soccer right now
Here are 15 particularly interesting races to follow. I do a list like this each spring, and this one has a particularly English feel.
Teams involved: Hearts, Celtic, Rangers
It feels like I’m jinxing it by simply bringing it up, but it’s time to talk about Hearts.
When Heart of Midlothian surged to the top of the table in the Scottish Premiership early in the season, it was easy to write it off as a fun side effect of epic struggles from both Celtic and Rangers. Surely it wasn’t going to last. After all, no one but Scotland‘s two giants have won a top-division title since Sir Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen did it twice — while also winning the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup and UEFA Super Cup — in the mid-1980s.
Hearts haven’t won the title since 1959-60, haven’t even finished second since 2005-06 and went into administration in 2013; they are known primarily for the heartbreak of the 1985-86 season, when they needed only a draw on the final matchday against Dundee to win the title … but fell 2-0. They began this league season unbeaten through 12 matches and led at the midway point, but Rangers have lost only one league match since hiring Danny Rohl in October, and Celtic finally stabilized a bit after making their second firing of the season and bringing in 74-year-old Martin O’Neill as interim manager for a second time.
So that’s that, right? Time for the Old Firm to take over? Nope! After losing two of three in February (including 4-2 to Rangers), Hearts have won their last two league matches, while Rangers and Celtic each dropped points for two straight weeks. Hearts continue to play stalwart defense, getting just enough goal-scoring oomph from Claudio Braga and company, and through 29 matchdays, we’re looking at this at the top of the table:
1. Hearts – 63 points, +28 goal differential
2. Celtic – 58 points, +22
3. Rangers – 57 points, +26
There are four matches left before the league gets split into two, and the top six teams all play each other one more time. In other words, the work is far from over. But if you haven’t started paying attention yet, it’s time to. You don’t want to miss it if Hearts actually pull this off.
Teams involved: West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur, Leeds United
2:25
Laurens: Tudor should have resigned after Atletico Madrid defeat
Gab & Juls slam Igor Tudor’s decisions in Tottenham’s 5-2 loss to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
While Wolves appear interested in pulling the greatest escape act ever — they’ve taken eight points from their past five league matches after managing just eight in their first 25 — they’re still in a 12-point hole and almost guaranteed to go down. Burnley, meanwhile, are in a nine-point hole. But the fight to avoid 18th place is becoming the most morbidly fascinating race in Europe.
15. Leeds United – 31 points, minus-11 goal differential
16. Tottenham – 29 points, minus-7
17. Nottingham Forest – 28 points, minus-15
18. West Ham United – 28 points, minus-19
On paper, this battle has a clear hierarchy. Opta’s supercomputer gives West Ham a 48.8% chance of going down, while Forest’s at 25.8%, Spurs 18.1% and Leeds 7.8%. But that ignores a pretty incredible trajectory. West Ham have lost only two of their past 11 games in all competitions, having rallied beautifully in 2026 under Nuno Espirito Santo.
Forest have hinted at stabilization since hiring Vitor Pereira — their fourth manager of the season — in mid-February, taking down Fenerbahce in the Europa League knockouts, nearly taking a point from Liverpool and successfully taking a point from Manchester City. Continuing on in the Europa League might be a bit distracting, but their form is decent. Leeds’ form is decent, too, and they’ve been unlucky to take only one point from their past three Premier League matches: Their xG differential was almost even in all three matches.
Spurs, meanwhile, are putting off the worst vibes in all of Europe. In their past six matches in all competitions, they’ve been outscored 18-6. They fired Thomas Frank and brought in a supposed firefighter in Igor Tudor, and it fixed nothing. Tudor has done a lot of predictable things in his four matches in charge, talking publicly about the need for toughness, seemingly emphasizing defense with some of his lineup choices and showing a willingness to bench struggling stalwarts. But every button he’s pressed, no matter how logical in a vacuum, has made things infinitely worse.
It’s easy to think that things can’t possibly get worse following Tuesday’s Champions League implosion against Atletico Madrid, but it’s unfathomable that such a well-monied club has allowed things to get this bad, and there’s no obvious fix at the moment.
Leeds could end up a main character in this race, traveling to both Tottenham and West Ham in May, but for now it’s all about Spurs. They must travel to Liverpool this weekend, then host Forest in an old-fashioned relegation six-pointer next weekend.
Teams involved: Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Brentford, Everton
Since Arsenal are 16 points ahead of third-place Manchester United and Manchester City are nine points ahead, it’s safe to assume that those two clubs will end up in next year’s Champions League. (It’s also safe to assume that England will comfortably end up with a fifth spot in the Champions League, as we’ll discuss below.) That means that there are three spots remaining for basically these six teams:
3. Manchester United – 51 points, +11 goal differential
4. Aston Villa – 51 points, +5
5. Chelsea – 48 points, +19
6. Liverpool – 48 points, +9
7. Brentford – 44 points, +4
8. Everton – 43 points, +1
Granted, Brentford and Everton are off the pace a bit and have only a 10.9% chance and 1.9% chance, respectively, of finishing in the top five per the Opta supercomputer. But even if or when the long shots fall short, one of the other four will, too. Who might it be?
There are 10 remaining head-to-heads between the six teams above, starting with Manchester United at Aston Villa (Sunday) and Everton at Chelsea (March 21). Two of the teams play Manchester City, too.
Whoever snags a top-five finish will have earned it.
Leagues involved: Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy
Each week during European competitions, UEFA posts updated season performance scores for each country; the top two countries, in terms of average performance per team in UEFA competitions, will earn bonus Champions League berths. Here’s where the top averages stood heading into this week:
1. England – 22.3 points per team
2. Germany – 17.6
3. Spain – 17.4
4. Italy – 17.4
5. Portugal – 16.6
England has not only the best average, but also still has all nine of its UEFA teams active across the three tournaments (Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League) for at least one more week. Even with a poor week of Champions League results, a fifth bid for the Premier League is virtually certain, but that second spot is awfully blurry. Spain has six of eight teams still alive, Germany has five of seven, Italy has four of seven (though Bologna and Roma face each other in the Europa League, so only one can advance), and Portugal has three of five.
Right now it feels like Germany and Spain have the inside track, but every result from here could end up mattering quite a bit.
Teams involved: Middlesbrough, Millwall, Ipswich Town, Hull City, Wrexham, Derby County, Southampton
3:14
Ryan Reynolds & Rob Mac not fans of VAR after Wrexham defeat
ESPN spoke with Wrexham F.C co-owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac after their 4-2 defeat to Chelsea in the FA cup.
We thought we had everything figured out. Teams promoted into the Premier League were going straight back down with increasing regularity, and teams dropping back into the Championship were more likely than their second-division peers to get promoted again soon. The money differences were too stark, and inter-division parity in England appeared nonexistent.
This season, however, has thrown that for a lovely loop. At least one of three promoted teams (Sunderland) is all but assured of staying up, and another (Leeds) remains pretty likely. Meanwhile, of the top six teams in the Championship at the moment, only one has played in the Premier League since 2017. First-place Coventry hasn’t been up since 2001, third-place Millwall hasn’t been up since 1990, when the first division was called the First Division (and the Premier League hadn’t been invented yet), while Wrexham has never played first-division ball.
Coventry’s win on Wednesday sent them nine points ahead of third place, so their odds of avoiding the four-team promotion playoff are solid at the moment. But in one direction or the other, nine teams are within five points of the playoff with nine to 10 matches remaining.
2. Middlesbrough – 37 games, 69 points, +22 goal differential
3. Millwall – 37 games, 68 points, +10
4. Ipswich Town – 36 games, 65 points, +26
5. Hull City – 37 games, 63 points, +6
6. Wrexham – 36 games, 57 points, +8
7. Southampton – 36 games, 54 points, +11
8. Derby County – 37 games, 54 points, +6
9. Watford – 36 games, 52 points, +4
10. Swansea – 37 games, 52 points, +0
Among last year’s relegated Premier League teams, Ipswich have rebounded from a poor start to jump back to fourth; Southampton, meanwhile, have overcome a couple of different funks and have gone eight league games unbeaten. They’re back to within three points of the top six. But all of the teams involved are in solid form at the moment.
There’s a lot of new blood involved here, too, and while Wrexham will occupy a lot of the oxygen because, well, they’re Wrexham, there are a lot of exciting stories here. Coventry finally back in the Premier League? Derby County, less than five years after massive financial issues? Millwall? Sign me up.
Teams involved: Arsenal, Manchester City
2:11
Have Arsenal lost their creative spark?
Craig Burley questions Arsenal’s attacking threat after their 1-1 draw to Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Arsenal took the Premier League lead on Oct. 4 with a 2-0 win over West Ham, and the league campaign has basically taken on a “Can they hold on this time?” vibe ever since. Manchester City’s form has waxed and waned, but Arsenal have responded well to every hint of adversity — their lead over City was just two points in December, and they extended it back to seven in mid-January. It was back to two points on Feb. 21, and now it’s back to seven again (though City have a game in hand).
1. Arsenal – 30 games, 67 points, +37 goal differential
2. Manchester City – 29 games, 60 points, +32
On paper, Arsenal are major favorites. Opta gives them a massive 93.5% title chance, which is why this race doesn’t rank in the top five. But exactly three years ago today, they led City by five points and went on to lose the race by five points. This looks and smells like a different Arsenal team, but they have to keep proving it for two more months.
Teams involved: Barcelona, Real Madrid
A Barca-Real Madrid title race! How new and different! The teams that have combined for 64 Spanish titles (and 54 runner-up finishes) are once again distanced from the rest of the LaLiga pack despite injuries and, in Real Madrid’s case, a well-publicized panic-firing. Real Madrid took the lead for a bit in February, but back-to-back league losses for the Blancos allowed Barca to jump back ahead.
1. Barcelona – 67 points, +46 goal differential
2. Real Madrid – 63 points, +33
Barca are particularly hot right now and have given themselves a small cushion — Opta currently gives them a 79% title chance to Real Madrid’s 21%. But it’s hard not to start looking ahead to May 10, when Barca host El Clasico. Both teams have to face third-place Atletico on each side of the coming international break, though. Don’t want to drop points now.
1:33
Moreno: Valverde has elevated himself to ‘legendary status’ at Real Madrid
Alejandro Moreno reacts to Federico Valverde’s hat trick that led Real Madrid past Manchester City in the first leg of their Champions League matchup.
The main competitors: PSG, Lens
We also need to put this on the list no matter what the odds say. PSG continue to flicker between dominant and glitchy, and Lens remain in strong form despite a couple of recent setbacks. They pummeled last-place Metz last week while PSG lost at home to Monaco, and we therefore have a one-point race again.
In short, the 1997-98 Ligue 1 champions aren’t going away yet.
1. PSG – 57 points, +32 goal differential
2. Lens – 56 points, +27
On April 11, PSG will visit Lens to determine who holds their own destiny in this race. It’s easy to make assumptions — Opta still gives PSG an 85.9% title chance — but we’ve been waiting for PSG to both reach and remain in fifth gear all season, and it hasn’t happened. With anything less than top-level play from PSG, Lens could remain deeply involved.
1:44
Moreno: PSG result is embarrassing for Chelsea
Alejandro Moreno believes Chelsea should have done better to manage the game vs. PSG in the Champions League
Teams involved: Hoffenheim, Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen helped their own cause Wednesday. A light, late penalty meant they could only draw with Arsenal in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16, instead of beating them outright, but a point’s a point, and it still helped Germany’s odds of snagging a fifth Champions League berth … a bid that might go to Bayer Leverkusen. They’re one of four teams packed pretty closely together between third and sixth in the league. Either two or three of these teams will make it.
3. Hoffenheim – 49 points, +20 goal differential
4. Stuttgart – 47 points, +16
5. RB Leipzig – 47 points, +14
6. Bayer Leverkusen – 44 points, +16
It’s still technically possible that second-place Borussia Dortmund (55 points) could slide into the fight, but this is probably a four-way battle. Hoffenheim won six of their first seven matches in 2026 to build a sudden cushion in the race for a Champions League berth in the Bundesliga; they’ve won only one of their last three, however, and Stuttgart have drawn two of their last three as well. This race could get tighter and tighter.
Teams involved: Como, Roma, Juventus
With Bologna and Roma having to face each other in the Europa League round of 16 and Atalanta almost assuredly not coming back from 6-1 against Bayern in the Champions League, it’s going to be awfully difficult for Italy to snag that fifth Champions League bid. And while it’s not inconceivable that third-place Napoli could slip into the discussion (or seventh-place Atalanta could charge back into it), we’re probably looking at a three-team race for one berth.
3. Napoli – 56 points, +14 goal differential
4. Roma – 51 points, +17
5. Como – 51 points, +25
6. Juventus – 50 points, +22
7. Atalanta – 46 points, +13
Como are obviously the most unlikely name in this batch of teams — they’re in just their second season back in the top division after a two-decade absence — but they’ve been good all season, and recent draws with Inter at home and Juve away sure make it seem like they have staying power. Still, no one has a clear edge here. Opta gives Como a 38% chance of a top-four finish, with Juve at 36% and Roma at 33%. (Napoli is at 91%, Atalanta at 3%.)
We still have two head-to-heads between those three primary teams — Roma at Como on Sunday, Napoli at Como on May 3 — but this battle might be decided by who can take points from the best teams: Napoli (AC Milan, April 4), Como (Inter, April 12) and Juve (at AC Milan, April 26) all have remaining matches against the top two as well.
Even if none of the above title races go down to the wire, a trio of lower-level races probably will. And each of them have a unique set of personality traits.
Teams involved in Belgium: Union Saint-Gilloise, Club Brugge, Sint-Truiden, basically the new heavyweights, the old heavyweights and the upstarts
After a run of close calls, Union Saint-Gilloise finally snagged the top-division crown last season and currently lead the way again. But 19-time champions Club Brugge loom just three points back, as do zero-time champs Sint-Truiden.
1. Union Saint-Gilloise – 60 points, +29 goal differential
2. Club Brugge – 57 points, +19
3. Sint-Truiden – 57 points, +15
Sint-Truiden finished 13th last season and have only once even finished second in the top division. But with a delightfully unique squad, they’ve taken 39 of a possible 48 points from their last 16 league matches. What’s unique about them? They’ve gone all-in on Japanese talent: In terms of minutes played, six of their top nine players are from Japan, including 34-year-old captain Shogo Taniguchi and 20-year-old leading goal scorer Keisuke Goto.
Only two more matches remain until playoff time, when the top six teams see their point totals cut in half and rounded up — so both Brugge and Sint-Truiden would trail USG by only one point each — and play a full, 10-match round-robin against each other. Lots of potential plot twists remain.
Teams involved in Greece: AEK Athens, PAOK, Olympiacos, aka three of the country’s four heavyweights
Only four teams have won the Greek top-division title more than three times – hell, only six have ever won it – and three of them are within two points of each other with two matches remaining before the championship playoff.
1. AEK Athens – 56 points, +29 goal differential
2. PAOK – 54 points, +33
3. Olympiacos – 54 points, +31
AEK, most recently the 2022-23 champions, have drifted ahead thanks to Luka Jovic‘s goal scoring (remember him, Madrid fans?) and a 16-match league unbeaten streak, but they took only two points in four matches against PAOK and Olympiacos and will have to play them each two more times in the playoff ahead. (They’re also still involved in the Conference League, facing Celje in the round of 16.) And with PAOK dropping quite a few points recently, the smart money might be back on defending champions Olympiacos, who are done with European play after a solid run to the Champions League knockouts.
Teams involved in Austria: Sturm Graz, Salzburg, LASK, Austria Wien, Hartberg, Rapid Wien, basically six teams within five points of each other at the top
After winning 10 straight Austrian Bundesliga titles, RB Salzburg slipped to second over the last two seasons and lost some of their competitiveness in European competitions. While their Europa League campaign wasn’t particularly impressive this season, they charged back to the top of the domestic table. But a draw and a loss in their last two matches allowed two-time defending champions Sturm Graz to take the lead again as the regular season ended and the top six moved into the championship playoff.
With points halved and odd numbers rounded down, here’s the table heading into the playoff:
1. Sturm Graz – 19 points, +7 goal differential
2. Salzburg – 18 points, +16
3. LASK – 18 points, +2
4. Austria Wien – 18 points, +4
5. Hartberg – 16 points, +5
6. Rapid Wien – 16 points, +1
This group includes each of the three teams to have won at least 17 Austrian titles (Rapid Wien, Austria Wien and Salzburg), plus the reigning champs and two historical afterthoughts in LASK (one title in 1964-65) and Hartberg (no titles). Choose your fighter.
Teams involved: Real Oviedo, Levante, Elche, Deportivo Alaves, Mallorca, Sevilla, Girona
LaLiga is stratified at the top this season, with not only Barca and Real Madrid separated from the pack in the top two but also the next two teams, third-place Atletico and fourth-place Villarreal, leading fifth-place Real Betis by double digits as well. Granted, if Spain grabs a fifth Champions League berth, then the battle between Betis (43 points), Celta de Vigo (40) and Espanyol (37) for fifth could be great.
But right now, the most anxiety is focused at the other end of the table, where eight teams are within six points of the relegation zone.
13. Rayo Vallecano – 31 points, -6 goal differential
14. Sevilla – 31 points, -7
15. Girona – 31 points, -15
16. Deportivo Alaves – 27 points, -12
17. Elche – 26 points, -6
18. Mallorca – 25 points, -13
19. Levante – 22 points, -16
20. Real Oviedo – 18 points, -27
Real Oviedo are obviously likely to go down, but beyond that it’s anyone’s guess. Opta gives Levante a 77% chance of relegation, and everyone else is under 50%, from Elche at 43% to Rayo at 2%. Anyone could save themselves, and anyone could fall into serious trouble.
Teams involved: Bochum, Fortuna Dusseldorf, Nurnberg, Arminia Bielefeld, Dynamo Dresden, Preussen Munster, Eintracht Braunschweig, Greuther Furth, Holstein Kiel, Magdeburg … why yes, I just listed over half the league
This time last year, I ranked the 2. Bundesliga promotion race high on this list because half the league, nine of 18 teams, were within six points of automatic promotion. It was wild.
Granted, this year’s promotion hunt has its own fun storylines — Schalke, Darmstadt, Paderborn and tiny Elversberg are separated by only four points atop the table — but it’s even wilder at the bottom, where 10 teams are within six points of the relegation playoff.
9. Bochum – 32 points, +3 goal differential
10. Fortuna Dusseldorf – 31 points, -10
11. Nurnberg – 30 points, -4
12. Arminia Bielefeld – 27 points, +2
13. Dynamo Dresden – 26 points, -6
14. Preussen Munster – 26 points, -8
15. Eintracht Braunschweig – 26 points, -15
16. Greuther Furth – 26 points, -19
17. Holstein Kiel – 25 points, -8
18. Magdeburg – 23 points, -13
Magdeburg sits in last place despite having scored as many goals (35) as first-place Schalke. In the last month or so, they’ve scored a 5-4 win over Greuther Furth (avenging a 5-4 loss to Furth in August, I kid you not) and lost 5-3 to Schalke. They might be the most fun team in the league, and they aren’t far from saving themselves. Meanwhile, Bochum are good enough to have a positive goal differential, but they’re safe by only six points and face road trips to Magdeburg, Dynamo Dresden and Arminia Bielefeld. They’re only a couple of unfortunate results from trouble.
In terms of maximum silliness and anxiety (and great attendance), this might be the most reliably interesting league in Europe.
