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Neil Paine
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? With just over a week until Selection Sunday, we’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
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Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 30 current teams
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Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. Nine current teams
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Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 14 current teams
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
SEC
9.8 expected bids (8.8 at-large)
Locks (7)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Arkansas Razorbacks
Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee Volunteers
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 3, 9:26 p.m.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers fell at Oklahoma on Tuesday — though it really didn’t dent their at-large chances. Mizzou had already cracked the top eight of SEC teams in the résumé average (and the top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-10 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th toughest vs. fifth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as it sits above 80% with one more Quadrant 1 shot left to close the regular season.
Next game: vs. Arkansas (Saturday)
Updated: March 4, 9:10 p.m.
After adding a key road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday, Texas’ momentum was slowed with a lopsided loss at Arkansas on Wednesday. The Longhorns have seven Quadrant 1 wins on the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even Tennessee) — so the consensus forecast still sets their at-large chances at 77%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. And at No. 9 in the overall SEC résumé rankings, they are still in a solid position; teams with similar résumés to Texas have made the tournament in the past, per advanced analytics site Bart Torvik.
Next game: vs. Oklahoma (Saturday)
Work to do (2)
Updated: March 3, 9:31 p.m.
Recent losses to Arkansas and Texas sent Texas A&M’s at-large chances tumbling from “should be in” to “work to do” territory, but the Aggies clawed some of that positioning back with a home win over Kentucky on Tuesday. Bucky McMillan’s squad still sits at 73% in the consensus of models, so they’re far from a “lock.” They do have five Quadrant 1 victories now but rank 11th among SEC teams in our résumé rating (mid-40s nationally), and parsing their bona fides against the conference’s other bubble teams such as Texas and Auburn still won’t be an easy task for the committee.
Next game: at LSU (Saturday)
Updated: March 3, 11:59 p.m.
The Tigers desperately needed a win after losing seven of their previous eight games, and they finally got it against LSU on Tuesday. They have an interesting case for the committee, but have all but run out of wiggle room: Though they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and are borderline top 40 in the national résumé ranking average, their 14 losses are by far the most among the SEC bubble tier. Teams with résumés most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not, per Bart Torvik, which explains why the Tigers’ consensus chances hover in the mid 30% range ahead of their regular-season finale.
Next game: at Alabama (Saturday)
BIG TEN
9.5 expected bids; 8.5 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 4, 8:31 a.m.
Following Saturday’s loss at Minnesota, Mick Cronin’s team picked up its most impressive win of the season Tuesday night, beating No. 9 Nebraska by 20 in Westwood. The victory was the Bruins’ fourth Quadrant 1 victory (third vs. Quadrant 1-A) of the season, placing their résumé inside the nation’s top 40 and ninth in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. They’re playing well recently, and their consensus at-large odds are at 96% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
Next game: at USC (Saturday)
Updated: March 6, 8:08 a.m.
After falling in a tight game to Michigan on Thursday, Iowa has now lost five of its past seven games with the Big Ten tourney approaching. But since three of those losses were to quadrant 1A opponents, the Hawkeyes aren’t in too much danger. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — and they have a consensus 93% at-large probability. While grabbing the win over Michigan would have potentially elevated them to “lock” status, there aren’t many scenarios under which Iowa would somehow be left out of the bracket at this point.
Next game: at Nebraska (Sunday)
Updated: March 4, 9:20 p.m.
You know things are going right for the Buckeyes when they win back-to-back games — something they haven’t done since late January, sweating out the bubble with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip over that stretch. Their convincing wins over Purdue and Penn State boosted their numbers to 87%, further solidifying a résumé that ranks inside the top 40 of the national rankings (eighth in Big Ten). This is as far above the cutline as they have been in a while. They’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against bubble rival Indiana to close the regular season with what would be their first three-game winning streak since November.
Next game: vs. Indiana (Saturday)
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 4, 8:16 p.m.
Indiana badly needed a win after losing four straight to Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and Michigan State — plunging its conditional at-large probability to just 45% — and the Hoosiers got it with Wednesday’s blowout of Minnesota. Though they remain on the right side of the bubble in the predictive metrics with a top-40 ranking, their portfolio has still lost ground compared to other bubble teams: They now rank borderline top 50 in the national résumé average, 10th in the conference, right on the line of how many bids the Big Ten could get. With at-large chances in the mid-50%, their tournament future remains in flux with the regular-season finale against bubble rival Ohio State next.
Next game: at Ohio State (Saturday)
BIG 12
8.0 expected bids (7.0 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kansas Jayhawks
BYU Cougars
Should be in (1)
Updated: March 3, 9:40 p.m.
After regaining momentum with three straight wins in mid-February, UCF has since lost back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma State — the latter of which the Knights came out hot but could not take control of the game. Still, UCF is in solid shape at 86% in the at-large model consensus. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even in the top 40 — they still easily should have that seventh slot.
Next game: at West Virginia (Friday)
Work to do (2)
Updated: March 3, 9:10 p.m.
The Horned Frogs’ case for the Big 12’s final at-large bid strengthened again with their seventh win in eight games, adding one of their best victories of the season at Texas Tech on Tuesday. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen into the mid-70% range, up from just 10% three weeks ago, and they have five Quadrant 1 wins after downing the Red Raiders. They have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team, even with Cincinnati surging — their overall résumé is superior to the Bearcats’ — and the latest Bracketology sets the Big 12 with that many entries. Though a big head-to-head with Cincy awaits, it’s looking more likely than not that TCU will hear its name on Selection Sunday
Next game: vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
Updated: March 3, 11:20 p.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued with a convincing Quadrant 1 win over BYU on Tuesday for their sixth win in seven games. They are still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances at 30%. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: Iowa State, Kansas and now BYU. But their recent hot streak sets up a big regular-season finale against fellow bubble team TCU.
Next game: at TCU (Saturday)
ACC
7.8 expected bids; 6.8 at-large
Locks (5)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
NC State Wolfpack
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 3, 9:16 p.m.
Fresh off a nice résumé win over Louisville on Saturday, the Tigers hung with North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Tuesday — even leading midway through the second half — but ultimately fell for their fifth loss in six games. It doesn’t spell doom for Clemson, though; it still ranks no worse than seventh in the ACC in résumé average, and its consensus at-large chances remain above 90% — down from 98% after the recent slump, but still high enough in the conference’s pecking order to feel optimistic about its chances ahead of the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. A win would give the Tigers a much-needed momentum reset ahead of the ACC tournament.
Next game: vs. Georgia Tech (Saturday)
Updated: March 4, 9:14 p.m.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and others with another big one against SMU on Wednesday, knocking the Mustangs down in the ACC bubble pecking order (see below). Miami’s at-large chances (93%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. Louisville is no slouch to close the regular season against, but the Canes are in great shape.
Next game: Louisville (Saturday)
Work to do (3)
Updated: March 4, 9:14 p.m.
The Mustangs sat at 94% in the consensus at-large chances a little over a week ago, but a three-game losing streak to Cal, Stanford and Miami — coupled with other developments across the bubble — has dropped them to below 70%. They are now fighting to remain in the eighth position of what is shaping up to be an eight-bid ACC. They have a cushion over Cal and Virginia Tech in terms of overall résumé quality, but they’ve lost to the Bears head-to-head, and the Hokies have more high-quality wins. The Mustangs still have the edge, so they will try to get back on track against Florida State ahead of the conference tournament.
Next game: at Florida State (Saturday)
Updated: March 3, 10:55 p.m.
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with a win over Boston College on Tuesday, its second victory in three games after previously losing four of five. The Hokies’ consensus at-large chances are still low, rising to just 23% with the victory. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating inside the nation’s top 50, so their case could get interesting if they can knock off Virginia in the regular-season finale.
Next game: at Virginia (Saturday)
Updated: March 4, 9:11 p.m.
The Golden Bears got back to winning against Georgia Tech on Wednesday, prevailing by 11 for their fourth victory in five games. It improved their at-large chances, but not by enough to pull to within striking distance of SMU despite the Mustangs’ own loss. The Bears currently sit outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking — borderline bubble territory — and have four Quadrant 1 wins. They have a chance to add one more in the regular-season finale at Wake Forest.
Next game: at Wake Forest (Saturday)
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Should be in (0)
None
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 3, 9:22 p.m.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates salvaged their bid (for now) by stifling Xavier with a 19-4 second-half run that helped them win for the fourth time in six games. Their at-large chances still sit a tick below 20% in the forecast composite, and they’re still stinging from the missed opportunity to add a much-needed résumé boost against UConn on Saturday. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a couple of Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation.
Next game: vs. St. John’s (Friday)
OTHERS
Locks (3)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Should be in (1)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: March 4, 10:06 p.m.
The Billikens hit a speed bump the past couple of weeks — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne — so it was important they handled business as massive favorites against Loyola Chicago the way they did Wednesday. They have been a great story in their second season under coach Josh Schertz, and with an 84% conditional probability in our consensus forecast, they have a strong chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. They are still top-30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Next game: at George Mason (Saturday)
Work to do (6)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: March 3, 9:05 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, rallying to beat Western Michigan last week and then surviving a tight battle with Toledo on Tuesday to remain the sole remaining unbeaten team in Division I. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though they rank inside the top 40 on résumé; there have been just two instances, since 1985, of the committee excluding an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season; and Miami made the field as an at-large team during a recent NCAA-ran mock selection exercise. It’s true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 317th-toughest schedule in the nation. But wins matter. And they are now only one away from an undefeated regular season, at which point it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they were to lose in the MAC tournament.
Next game: at Ohio (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:37 p.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant as we debate whether the West Coast Conference could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. After beating Oregon State to finish the regular season Saturday, the Broncos still have model chances nearly in the 70% range and a top-40 résumé ranking nationally, but their fate appears to hang almost entirely upon what they do in the conference tournament and/or whether the selection committee will send that extra WCC at-large team to the Big Dance.
Next game: WCC tournament (March 5-10)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: March 3, 9:44 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit around a 35% consensus at-large chance) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. That’s in part because the Rams are 1-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a recent collapse at Saint Louis that hurt their at-large case. They are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), though, and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 12 of 13 after holding off George Mason on Tuesday. They also could add a second Quadrant 1 win over Dayton on Friday. But it remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid (which has happened in three of five years).
Next game: at Dayton (Friday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: March 5, 8:22 a.m.
Heading into Wednesday’s contest versus Colorado State, New Mexico had been asserting itself to be the committee’s second choice coming out of the Mountain West as an at-large (if necessary). But a loss hosting the Rams complicated the MWC bubble picture more than ever. The Lobos’ updated chances (18% conditional at-large odds) are still higher than San Diego State’s (16%), based on New Mexico’s borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but neither team is in good shape ahead of the conference tournament. The Lobos would figure to still own the edge, as they have more Quadrant 1/2 wins than the Aztecs, and recently evened the head-to-head scales. But a strong closing regular-season statement against Utah State is suddenly high on New Mexico’s to-do list.
Next game: at Utah State (Saturday)
Updated: March 4, 8:26 a.m.
Aside from a win over conference leader Utah State by 17 last month, the Aztecs are sliding out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games. The latest: Tuesday night’s defeat at Boise State, which dropped their consensus at-large chances to just 16%. Already borderline top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking, they are on the wrong side of the bubble right now. The Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons — and although there’s enough of a gap in at-large chances between SDSU and the next-best teams on the list, the chances of the Aztecs sneaking in as the league’s third representative look increasingly unlikely.
Next game: vs. UNLV (Friday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Updated: March 6, 8:28 a.m.
Bubble Watch’s latest newcomer, the Bulls have now won 11 of their past 12 games — including eight straight — after outlasting Memphis on the road Thursday. Their consensus at-large chance remains in the teens, so it’s not clear they’ve done enough compared with the other teams on the bubble. The Bulls are 22-8 overall with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and they rank 51st in the national résumé average. They are undeniably on a hot streak, and they’re the BPI’s favorite to win the American tourney (with a 42.8% chance), but Joe Lunardi has the conference down to send only one team to the Big Dance at the moment.
Next game: vs. Charlotte (Sunday)
Glossary of terms
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Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
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Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
