The fate of the New South Wales Liberal party will be decided at a crunch meeting on Tuesday, where the party’s federal executive will weigh up whether to end or extend its control over the division.
The federal Liberal party forcibly took over the NSW division in September last year after the NSW branch failed to lodge nominations for 140 candidates in 16 councils before the local government elections. A committee was appointed to replace its state executive for a period of 10 months.
On Tuesday, the Liberal party federal executive will decide the next steps for new Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s home state division in one of her first major challenges.
In the lead-up to the meeting, a small NSW-focused committee remaining in control of the state branch has been firming as the most likely outcome.
That would mean replacing the three-person committee backed by Peter Dutton and supported by Tony Abbott.
The administrative committee – whose term runs out on 30 June – ignited a internal furore after one of the members, Alan Stockdale, said Liberal women were “sufficiently assertive” and perhaps men needed a leg up.
The federal executive is also expected to agree to launch two separate reviews after the party’s worst election defeat in its 80-year history – a conventional post-election inquiry and a broader probe into the party.
Arthur Sinodinos is expected to be among the senior party figures to lead the campaign review, although Guardian Australia understands the former Liberal minister, staffer and US ambassador has yet to be formally approached for the task.
John Howard-era cabinet minister and former rightwing power broker Nick Minchin was another name that was floated.
The Queensland senator, James McGrath, is the frontrunner to lead the deeper dive into the party, according to multiple Liberal sources.
The federal intervention has rankled all three factions in NSW – the moderates, the centre-right and the right – and all are perturbed with the lack of progress and consultation.
A three-person committee made up of Victorian party figures Stockdale and Richard Alston and former NSW state MP Peta Seaton was installed to manage the branch, including reviewing the party’s constitution, overhauling the administrative machinery and helping to conduct the federal election campaign.
As a decision on the future of the intervention neared, a compromise in which the federal executive agreed to continue with a committee but install more NSW members has garnered a level of support across the factions.
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The most likely shape of the new committee would be an elder statesperson from NSW as the chair – and the three remaining vice-presidents from the NSW state executive.
“It’s very much a Speakman-Ley proposal,” said one senior Liberal, referring to Ley and the NSW opposition leader, Mark Speakman.
“They have been working very closely together,” he said.
This option would have the advantage of being more acceptable to the NSW party members because local figures would be in control.
Ley would not comment before Tuesday’s meeting but sources close to the Liberal leader disputed suggestions she was working with any faction on a particular model.
The compromise is not certain to succeed as it requires 75% support from the 22-strong federal executive, which is compromised of Ley’s federal parliamentary leadership team, state division presidents and federal branch officials.
“We’re about two-thirds there,” said one insider, noting that most of the state representatives on the federal executive were instinctively likely to favour more state control.
If the vote for either the old or the compromise committee does not achieve 75%, the control of the NSW division will automatically revert to the NSW state executive.
