-
Neil Paine
With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, many fans are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
We’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending using a variety of metrics as guides, classifying them based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs).
To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
-
Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection without a conference tournament crown. There would need to be significant development that keeps them from making the field. 28 current teams + 1 clinched
-
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large chances or better), but not immune to trouble or an unexpected decision by the committee. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 13 current teams
-
Work to do: Teams playing to keep themselves in conference tournaments and on the bubble. Their chances are closest to a coin flip. 7 current teams
-
Sweating out Selection Sunday: These are exactly the same as “Work To Do” teams except they’ve been eliminated from their conference tournaments and can no longer do anything to build their case for the committee. 4 current teams
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
SEC
10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)
Locks (7)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 7, 8:51 p.m.
Margins can be razor-thin on the bubble at this time of year, as illustrated by the former “work to do” Aggies. Their odds would have dropped into the 60% range with a loss in triple overtime at LSU on Saturday but instead rose to 80% — and got them promoted — with the marathon win. Bucky McMillan’s squad is still not exactly a “lock,” but six Quadrant 1 victories and ranking top 10 among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low-40s nationally) give A&M a leg up on other SEC bubble hopefuls heading into the SEC tournament.
Next game: SEC tournament second round (Thursday)
Updated: March 7, 2:37 p.m.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back contests at Oklahoma and at home against Arkansas to close the SEC regular season. At 74% in the at-large odds, they’re a bit less safe than they seemed a few games ago, though they entered Saturday tied for eighth among SEC teams in the résumé average (and in the mid-40s nationally) — a favorable spot in a projected 10- or 11-bid league. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-11 vs. 16-14), even if it’s against a much easier schedule (63rd hardest vs. fifth). That still ought to help them going into the conference tourney.
Next game: SEC tournament second round (Thursday)
Work to do (2)
Updated: March 11, 5:18 p.m.
The Tigers lost eight of their final 10 regular-season games, casting serious doubt on their tournament future. But they began the long climb back Wednesday with a convincing victory over Mississippi State in the SEC first round. The Tigers aren’t without a case for the committee, headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins (two vs. Q1-A) against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, per the BPI. And, they are still mid-40s in the national résumé ranking average. Ordinarily, that would put a team directly on the bubble — but it’s historically almost impossible to make the tournament as an at-large team with 15 losses. Auburn’s consensus at-large odds are 54% as it looks ahead to Round 2 against Tennessee.
Next game: SEC tournament second round vs. Tennessee (Thursday)
Updated: March 11, 11:45 p.m.
The Sooners played themselves onto the bubble with four straight victories to end the regular season, then kept things rolling Wednesday by dominating South Carolina to advance in the SEC tournament. They have now racked up seven wins in nine games, a stretch that includes four of their five Quadrant 1 wins. Their chances in the forecast models are now up to 24%, and even though they still rank in the 50s nationally on résumé, the chaos around the SEC bubble has left the door open for the Sooners for now.
Next game: SEC tournament second round vs. Texas A&M (Thursday)
Sweating out Selection Sunday (1)
Updated: March 11, 9:09 p.m.
Just when it seemed to be on track to shore up its at-large résumé, Texas fell as a favorite to Ole Miss in a first-round SEC tournament matchup Wednesday — its fifth loss in six games. The Longhorns will now wait out the bubble as one of its more confusing teams: They have six Quadrant 1 wins this season — more than Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn and Oklahoma (and even Tennessee) — and they split their regular-season series against both A&M and Georgia. They are also only borderline top 50 in the national résumé rankings and 11th best in what might be a 10-bid SEC, and their consensus at-large forecast dropped to a meager 22% after their latest defeat.
BIG TEN
9.0 expected bids; 8.0 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 7, 11:45 p.m.
A few weeks after their at-large odds dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins won four of their final five regular-season contests — including against Nebraska and USC back-to-back. The latter win was also their fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, putting their résumé around the nation’s top 30 rankings and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. Mick Cronin’s team is playing well recently, and its consensus at-large odds are now at 97% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
Next game: Big Ten tournament third round vs. Rutgers (Thursday)
Updated: March 11, 3:21 p.m.
Iowa had gone cold over the final eight regular-season contests, losing six, but it didn’t hurt their odds too much because four of those losses were to Quadrant 1A opponents. The Hawkeyes got back into the W column in the Big Ten tourney Wednesday, beating Maryland to advance to Round 3. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — no worse than eighth best in the Big Ten — and they have a consensus at-large probability in the mid-90s. Despite their recent slump, there weren’t too many conference-tournament scenarios in which they would somehow be left out of the bracket, and one of those just got taken off the board.
Next game: Big Ten tournament third round vs. Ohio State (Thursday)
Updated: March 7, 8:02 p.m.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second three-game winning streak of the season — first since late November — beating Purdue, Penn State and Indiana in a crucial bubble contest to close out the regular season. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 91%, further solidifying a résumé that’s top 40 in the national rankings (and no worse than ninth in the Big Ten). While not a lock yet, they’ll enter the conference tournament with some momentum.
Next game: Big Ten tournament third round vs. Iowa (Thursday)
Sweating out Selection Sunday (1)
Updated: March 11, 8:36 p.m.
Indiana’s late-season slump might have reached its nadir in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday, as the Hoosiers fell by double digits to Northwestern for their sixth loss in seven games. The defeat plunged their at-large probability to 13%, with 14 losses and a résumé ranked around No. 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would be in play for the last of those nods over USC (which also lost Wednesday and has a 1% at-large chance) — but the conference getting only nine bids would leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
BIG 12
8.0 expected bids (7.0 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 11, 11:55 p.m.
The Horned Frogs’ case was further solidified with a second-round comeback victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament — their ninth win in 10 games. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen to 91%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, and they are nearly up to the top 30 in the national résumé rankings. At this point, TCU looks safe heading into Selection Sunday.
Next game: Big 12 tournament quarterfinals vs. Kansas (Thursday)
Updated: March 11, 5:46 p.m.
UCF never makes things easy for itself. After two separate three-game losing streaks late in the regular season saw their at-large odds whittled down from more than 95% to barely “Should Be In” territory, the Knights were also down to a 4% win probability in Wednesday’s critical Big 12 tourney showdown with Cincinnati. But Johnny Dawkins’ team kept fighting, and the Knights ended up winning in overtime to solidify their odds once more. With the Big 12 now looking like an eight-bid conference, there might be room for both UCF and TCU in the NCAA bracket, even though a comparison between the two (if necessary) would be a dead heat. At 87% in the models ahead of a quarterfinal date with Arizona, UCF’s victory over Cincy went a long way toward punching its tournament ticket.
Next game: Big 12 tournament quarterfinals vs. Arizona (Thursday)
ACC
7.8 expected bids; 6.8 at-large
Locks (4)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 11, 11:46 p.m.
The Tigers took care of business with a win over Wake Forest in the second round of the ACC tournament Wednesday night, improving their consensus at-large chances to 97%. They now rank sixth among ACC teams in résumé average — high enough in the conference’s pecking order to feel optimistic about their chances to make the cut in what’s looking like an eight-bid league.
Next game: ACC tournament quarterfinals vs. North Carolina (Thursday)
Updated: March 7, 4:25 p.m.
The Hurricanes were on a roll in ACC play, picking up résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and SMU, among others — but lost a nail-biter hosting Louisville on Saturday to close out the regular season. It really shouldn’t sting that much, however: Miami’s at-large chances (90%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. The Canes are still in fine shape to make the tournament.
Next game: ACC tournament quarterfinals (Thursday)
Updated: March 11, 3:30 p.m.
In desperate need of a win after six losses in seven games, NC State rallied from an early deficit to beat Pitt and make the ACC quarterfinals. Its at-large odds are now 93% — still slightly down from a peak of 98% — though not at all unfavorable when you consider that ranks seventh in an ACC trending toward eight NCAA entries. The Wolfpack still rank mid-30s nationally in the résumé ratings with a meaningful gap to the next-best team, SMU. Next up, they’ll try to get revenge against a Virginia team that beat them by nearly 30 a few weeks ago.
Next game: ACC tournament quarterfinals vs. Virginia (Thursday)
Sweating out Selection Sunday (2)
Updated: March 11, 5:12 p.m.
The Mustangs’ consensus at-large chances sat at 94% about two weeks ago, but losses in four of their final five regular-season games made them less certain heading into the ACC tournament. And although Tuesday’s first-round victory over Syracuse stabilized their odds some, a second-half lead over Louisville slipped away Wednesday, leaving them at 58% (little better than a coin flip) as Selection Sunday approaches. They are still eighth in the conference’s pecking order by that measure, and they have a cushion over Stanford and the rest of the ACC’s bubble dregs in terms of overall résumé quality (the Cardinal do have more Quadrant 1A wins). While the Mustangs hold the edge in theory, they have to hope they’ve made the case for the ACC to earn eight bids — but they did not make a strong closing argument.
Updated: March 11, 8:02 a.m.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. But losing a wild ACC tourney opener to Pitt on Tuesday means their fate is in the hands of the selection committee now. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. But they’re also outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, below those of the Mustangs and Hokies. The model consensus now gives them a mere 15% at-large chance, based on uncertainty over whom the committee might favor (and what the rest of the ACC bubble does).
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 12, 8:11 a.m.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates are here because their at-large chances sit at exactly 10% in the forecast composite ahead of their Big East quarterfinal contest against Creighton. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win, so a case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation. But they are favored to advance past the Bluejays, which means they could still make things interesting — especially considering how many other bubble teams keep losing.
Next game: Big East tournament quarterfinals vs. Creighton (Thursday)
OTHERS
Clinched (1)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Locks (2)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Should be in (3)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: March 7, 6:06 p.m.
The past couple of weeks have been a roller coaster for the Billikens — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne, then on Saturday lost the regular-season finale to George Mason in a 29-point rout. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point, but that figure falls to just 76% on the eve of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re still borderline top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a good chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. (BPI projections favor them to win the conference tournament.) But they’re a bit less certain than earlier in the year.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: March 10, 11:19 p.m.
With a chance to officially clinch a spot in the NCAA field, the Broncos hung with Gonzaga for most of Tuesday’s WCC championship, but ultimately fell short. Now Santa Clara has to wait for Selection Sunday. Their fate will revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, or just two. But the Broncos may have done their part for the extra spot by beating Saint Mary’s on Monday. The Broncos’ model chances are currently 84% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1A win of the year against SMC. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, and their trip to the conference title game might have put them over the top. But it’s in the committee’s hands now.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: March 12, 1:07 p.m.
With their undefeated season ending at the hands of UMass in the MAC quarterfinals on Thursday, 31-1 Miami now must receive an at-large bid to make the tournament. The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? The RedHawks’ case is historically unique: On the one hand, they’re outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation. But winning matters, too, and an eligible one-loss squad has never missed the modern tourney. It’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded by the selection committee — but if they make it, the MAC would also feature a bid thief, which has big ripple effects on the rest of the bubble. This is the mess the committee was hoping to avoid.
Next game: TBD
Work to do (4)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: March 11, 8:19 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, but the forecast models now give it a 42% consensus at-large chance after its win at Dayton on Friday night. The Rams are 2-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including two losses to A-10 rival Saint Louis. But they are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (low-40s nationally), and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 13 of 14, the sole slip-up coming against the Billikens in a game they led by double digits in the second half. It still remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid, but that has happened in three of five years and VCU is now trending to join Saint Louis in the NCAA field.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals (Friday)
Updated: March 7, 8:12 a.m.
As the Aztecs seemingly slid out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games, they recovered some to outlast UNLV in the regular-season finale on Friday. Despite the win, their consensus at-large chances are just 17%, and their No. 54 ranking nationally on the résumé list would put them on the wrong side of the bubble right now. On the positive side, the Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons, and New Mexico’s résumé is little better than SDSU’s. The Aztecs are one of the teams most vulnerable to a bid thief during conference tournaments.
Next game: Mountain West tournament quarterfinals vs. Colorado State (Thursday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Updated: March 8, 4:06 p.m.
The Bulls have now won 12 of 13 games, including nine straight, after blowing out Charlotte to end the regular season. Their consensus at-large chances remain in the neighborhood of 20%, so it’s unclear whether they’ve done enough to make the field as a potential at-large pick compared with other bubble teams. USF is 23-8 overall (against the No. 91-ranked schedule) with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and around 50th in the national résumé rankings. It’s undeniably on a hot streak and the BPI’s favorite to win the American tournament (with a 43.4% chance), but Joe Lunardi has the conference down to send just one team to the Big Dance at the moment.
Next game: American tournament semifinal vs. TBD (Saturday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: March 7, 6:32 p.m.
Before Wednesday’s loss to Colorado State, the Lobos had made a strong case to be the Mountain West’s second bid as an at-large (if necessary). But that loss, plus the one Saturday to Utah State, has complicated the MWC bubble picture more than ever. The Lobos’ updated chances (14% conditional at-large odds) once again trail San Diego State’s (17%). Both teams are outside the top 50 of the national résumé ranking, so neither is in good shape ahead of the conference tournament. The Lobos might still own the edge, with one more combined Quadrant 1 and 2 win than the Aztecs, and also recently evened the head-to-head scales. But very little separates them — and the Mountain West is looking like only a two-bid conference.
Next game: Mountain West tournament quarterfinals vs. San José State (Thursday)
Glossary of terms
-
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
-
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
-
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
-
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
