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Neil Paine
With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, many fans are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
We’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending using a variety of metrics as guides, classifying them based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs).
To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
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Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection without a conference tournament crown. There would need to be significant development that keeps them from making the field. 29 current teams + 1 clinched
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Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large chances or better), but not immune to trouble or an unexpected decision by the committee. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 11 current teams
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Work to do: Teams playing to keep themselves in conference tournaments and on the bubble. Their chances are closest to a coin flip. 6 current teams
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Sweating out Selection Sunday: These are exactly the same as “Work To Do” teams except they’ve been eliminated from their conference tournaments and can no longer do anything to build their case for the committee. 6 current teams
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
SEC
9.6 expected bids (8.6 at-large)
Locks (7)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (1)
Updated: March 13, 12:05 a.m.
After winning four of its last six games, Texas A&M was blown out by Oklahoma in the second round of the SEC tournament Thursday. Bucky McMillan’s squad is not exactly a “lock,” but five Quadrant 1 victories combined with a top 10 ranking among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low 40s nationally) still gives the Aggies an 77% at-large chance. They still have an edge over other SEC bubble hopefuls as they await Selection Sunday.
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 13, 12:05 a.m.
The Sooners played themselves onto the bubble at the end of the regular season and have kept the momentum rolling in the SEC tournament with wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M. They have now racked up eight wins in 10 games, a stretch that includes all of their Quadrant 1 wins. Amazingly, their chances in the forecast models are now up to 42% after blowing out the Aggies. And while they still rank in the 50s nationally on résumé, the chaos around the SEC bubble has left the door open for them to keep building their case for the conference’s final at-large nod.
Next game: SEC tournament quarterfinals vs. Arkansas (Friday, 9:30 p.m.)
Sweating out Selection Sunday (3)
Updated: March 13, 7:55 a.m.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back contests against Oklahoma and Arkansas to close the SEC regular season — then again to open the SEC tourney against Kentucky. At 72% in the at-large chances, they’re less safe than they seemed a few games ago, and they currently rank 45th in the résumé average (and 10th in the SEC), right on the bubble. The biggest threat to their chances is Oklahoma using the SEC tournament to improve its résumé and bump the Tigers — but their standing remains solid as long as the conference earns 10 bids.
Updated: March 12, 5:18 p.m.
Auburn’s season might have ended in a way that neatly encapsulates its late-season collapse, having lost nine of its last 12 games, including Thursday’s SEC tournament loss to Tennessee. The Tigers led the Vols for almost the entirety of their second-round matchup, peaking with an 87% win probability only to yield a 31-11 closing run en route to the loss. They are now at the mercy of the committee, and while they aren’t without a case — headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins (two vs. Q1A) against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, and a mid-40s ranking in the national résumé average — the Tigers also have 16 losses, which would be a historic total for an at-large team. Their consensus at-large chances are 41%, but that feels like an overstatement considering the MAC could get an extra bid with Miami (Ohio) also losing Thursday.
Updated: March 11, 9:09 p.m.
Just when it seemed to be on track to shore up its at-large résumé, Texas fell as a favorite to Ole Miss in a first-round SEC tournament matchup Wednesday — its fifth loss in six games. The Longhorns will now wait out the bubble as one of its more confusing teams: They have six Quadrant 1 wins this season — more than Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn and Oklahoma (and even Tennessee) — and they split their regular-season series against both A&M and Georgia. They are also only borderline top 50 in the national résumé rankings and 11th best in what might be a 10-bid SEC, and their consensus at-large forecast dropped to a meager 26% after their latest defeat.
BIG TEN
9.0 expected bids; 8.0 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 12, 11:01 p.m.
After their at-large chances dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins bounced back to win four of their final five regular-season contests, then rolled that momentum into the Big Ten tournament with Thursday’s win over Rutgers. Now they are up to 97%. With four Quadrant 1 victories, their résumé ranks around the nation’s top 30 and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a nine-bid Big Ten. They appear to be NCAA tournament-bound.
Next game: Big Ten tournament quarterfinals vs. Michigan State (Friday, 9 p.m.)
Updated: March 12, 2:11 p.m.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second four-game winning streak of the season — their first since late November. They beat Purdue, Penn State and Indiana to close out the regular season, then knocked off Iowa in the Big Ten third round. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances mostly hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 97%, further solidifying a résumé that’s approaching the top 30 in the national rankings (and no worse than eighth in the Big Ten). Though not quite a lock yet, they’re a pretty certain tourney team now.
Next game: Big Ten tournament quarterfinals vs. Michigan (Friday, noon)
Updated: March 12, 2:13 p.m.
Iowa went cold down the stretch, losing seven of its final 10 contests including Thursday’s defeat against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney, but that hasn’t hurt its at-large odds very much because the majority of those losses were to Quadrant 1 opponents. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the top 40 nationally — no worse than ninth best in what appears to be a nine-bid Big Ten — and they still have a consensus at-large probability of 94%. Despite their recent slump, Iowa has probably done enough to warrant a bid.
Sweating out Selection Sunday (1)
Updated: March 11, 8:36 p.m.
Indiana’s late-season slump might have reached its nadir in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday, as the Hoosiers fell by double digits to Northwestern for their sixth loss in seven games. The defeat plunged their at-large probability to 14%, with 14 losses and a résumé ranked around No. 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would be in play for the last of those nods over USC (which also lost Wednesday and has a 1% at-large chance) — but the conference getting only nine bids would leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
BIG 12
8.0 expected bids (7.0 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 13, 12:05 a.m.
The Horned Frogs were as hot as any team heading into the Big 12 tournament with nine wins in 10 games, but that momentum came to a halt when Kansas outlasted them in the quarterfinals Thursday. Their consensus at-large chances are still holding steady at 90%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, and they are still mid-30s in the national résumé rankings. At this point, TCU continues to look safe heading into Selection Sunday.
Updated: March 12, 5:33 p.m.
UCF’s emotional roller coaster will continue through Selection Sunday. After seeing their at-large odds whittled down from “Lock” to barely “Should Be In” territory with a couple of losing streaks late in the regular season, the Knights’ Big 12 tournament run came to an end Thursday against Arizona. Now they’ll wait to see whether they’ve done enough for the committee to award the Big 12 an eighth bid, though the models believe that is more likely than not, giving them an 85% at-large chance.
ACC
7.7 expected bids; 6.7 at-large
Locks (6)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Clemson Tigers
Miami Hurricanes
Should be in (1)
Updated: March 12, 2:19 p.m.
In desperate need of a win after six losses in seven games, NC State rallied from an early deficit to beat Pitt and make the ACC quarterfinals, but that was as far as the Wolfpack got. Virginia handled them Thursday to knock them out of the conference tourney. Their at-large odds are now 92% — down from a peak of 98% but not at all unfavorable when you consider that ranks seventh in an ACC trending toward eight NCAA entries. The Wolfpack still rank in the mid-30s nationally in our résumé ratings with a meaningful gap to the next-best team, SMU. Though their late-season swoon was far from ideal, they’ll probably get into the Big Dance anyway.
Sweating out Selection Sunday (2)
Updated: March 11, 5:12 p.m.
The Mustangs’ consensus at-large chances sat at 94% about two weeks ago, but losses in four of their final five regular-season games made them less certain heading into the ACC tournament. And although Tuesday’s first-round victory over Syracuse stabilized their odds some, a second-half lead over Louisville slipped away Wednesday, leaving them at 56% (little better than a coin flip) as Selection Sunday approaches. They are still eighth in the conference’s pecking order by that measure, and they have a cushion over Stanford and the rest of the ACC’s bubble dregs in terms of overall résumé quality (the Cardinal do have more Quadrant 1A wins). While the Mustangs hold the edge in theory, they have to hope they’ve made the case for the ACC to earn eight bids — but they did not make a strong closing argument.
Updated: March 11, 8:02 a.m.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. But losing a wild ACC tourney opener to Pitt on Tuesday means their fate is in the hands of the selection committee now. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. But they’re also outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, below those of the Mustangs and Hokies. The model consensus now gives them a mere 13% at-large chance, based on uncertainty over whom the committee might favor (and what the rest of the ACC bubble does).
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 12, 5:18 p.m.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates are still here after advancing to the Big East semifinals with a win against Creighton on Thursday. Their at-large chances remain just 16% in the forecast composite, and they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win, so a case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids — the current Bracketology expectation.
Next game: Big East tournament semifinals vs. St. John’s (Friday, 5:30 p.m.)
OTHERS
Clinched (1)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Locks (2)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Should be in (3)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: March 13, 1:56 p.m.
After an uncharacteristically shaky end to the regular season, the Billikens seemed to be in trouble down 21 points to George Washington midway through the first half of Friday’s A-10 quarterfinal — but they rallied to outscore the Revolutionaries 73-45 from that point. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point; that figure is now 82%. They’re still around the top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a very good chance to make the field as an at-large team if they don’t win the A-10 conference title.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament semifinals (Saturday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: March 10, 11:19 p.m.
With a chance to officially clinch a spot in the NCAA field, the Broncos hung with Gonzaga for most of Tuesday’s WCC championship, but ultimately fell short. Now Santa Clara has to wait for Selection Sunday. Their fate will revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, or just two. But the Broncos may have done their part for the extra spot by beating Saint Mary’s on Monday. The Broncos’ model chances are currently 90% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1A win of the year against SMC. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, and their trip to the conference title game might have put them over the top. But it’s in the committee’s hands now.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: March 12, 1:07 p.m.
With their undefeated season ending at the hands of UMass in the MAC quarterfinals on Thursday, 31-1 Miami now must receive an at-large bid to make the tournament. The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? The RedHawks’ case is historically unique: On the one hand, they’re outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation. But winning matters, too, and an eligible one-loss squad has never missed the modern tourney. It’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded by the selection committee — but if they make it, the MAC would also feature a bid thief, which has big ripple effects on the rest of the bubble. This is the mess the committee was hoping to avoid.
Next game: TBD
Work to do (4)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: March 11, 8:19 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, but the forecast models now give it a 47% consensus at-large chance after its win at Dayton on Friday night. The Rams are 2-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including two losses to A-10 rival Saint Louis. But they are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (low-40s nationally), and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 13 of 14, the sole slip-up coming against the Billikens in a game they led by double digits in the second half. It still remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid, but that has happened in three of five years and VCU is now trending to join Saint Louis in the NCAA field.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals vs. Duquesne (Friday, 5 p.m.)
Updated: March 13, 8:18 a.m.
The Aztecs seemed to be sliding off the bubble with losses in four of their last six regular-season games, but they dispatched Colorado State to open the Mountain West tournament Thursday. Their consensus at-large chances are still just 29%, and their No. 50 ranking nationally on the résumé list lags other teams on the mid-major bubble. The encouraging news for the Aztecs: The Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the NCAA tournament in five seasons, and they have the conference’s second-best chances. They must take advantage of the chance to add more to their résumé — and this upcoming New Mexico game will likely be a de facto NCAA tourney elimination contest.
Next game: Mountain West tournament semifinals vs. New Mexico (Saturday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Updated: March 8, 4:06 p.m.
The Bulls have now won 12 of 13 games, including nine straight, after blowing out Charlotte to end the regular season. Their consensus at-large chances remain in the neighborhood of 20%, so it’s unclear whether they’ve done enough to make the field as a potential at-large pick compared with other bubble teams. USF is 23-8 overall (against the No. 91-ranked schedule) with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and around 50th in the national résumé rankings. It’s undeniably on a hot streak and the BPI’s favorite to win the American tournament (with a 43.4% chance), but Joe Lunardi has the conference down to send just one team to the Big Dance at the moment.
Next game: American tournament semifinal vs. TBD (Saturday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: March 13, 8:18 a.m.
The Lobos’ case to be the Mountain West’s second bid as an at-large (if necessary) had been looking strong until losing three of four to end the regular season. But New Mexico beat San José State on Thursday to advance to the MWC semifinals and keep hope alive. The Lobos’ updated chances (17% conditional at-large odds) still trail San Diego State’s (29%). Both teams are barely inside the top 50 of the national résumé ranking, so each is a borderline case on its own. Because so little separates them — and the Mountain West is looking like only a two-bid conference at most (Joe Lunardi actually only has it down for one as of Friday morning) — the New Mexico-SDSU tilt will probably be win-or-go-home for the NCAA tournament.
Next game: Mountain West tournament semifinals vs. San Diego State (Saturday)
Glossary of terms
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Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
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Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
