Browsing: Economy

Donald Trump’s tariff plan could undermine the Brexit deal between the EU and the UK for trading arrangements in Northern Ireland, a highly sensitive agreement designed to maintain the 1998 peace pact.As part of the president’s attempt to spur on a “rebirth” of the US, Trump has imposed a two-tier tariff rate on the island of Ireland – with a 20% tax on exports from the republic but a 10% rate on the UK including Northern Ireland.A former EU commissioner has questioned whether Trump thought through his plan’s effect on the peace process brokered by the US almost 30 years ago.Although it could put Northern Ireland at an advantage over the Republic of Ireland for exports such as whisky and dairy produce, a political problem could arise if the EU retaliates with like-for-like tariffs of 20% on US imports.Under the Windsor framework, the EU tariffs will apply in Northern Ireland, creating a manufacturing price difference between Northern Ireland and Great Britain for any important components from the US.Stephen Kelly, the head of the campaigning group Manufacturing NI, said: “If the UK does not reciprocate or do the same thing as the EU we are at a disadvantage. Companies that buy materials in Belfast from the US will pay more than their counterparts in Bolton.”Mairead McGuinness, Ireland’s former EU commissioner, told RTÉ: “I’m questioning and wondering if this is well thought through from the US side? The US has always been a friend of the island of Ireland, and peace on this Ireland and stability.“It certainly causes some difficulties. And rather than jump to a conclusion, I think we will have to look at this very carefully … this was not part of the discussions and thought processes when the Windsor framework was being negotiated. I mean, 10% isn’t good for Northern Ireland either; 20% isn’t good for us. Divisions like this aren’t helpful.”The US was one of the key brokers of the Good Friday agreement in 1998 and is, by law, a co-guarantor of the peace process.The role had been held dearly by previous US presidents, including Joe Biden, who visited Belfast in 2023 for the 25th anniversary of the peace accord.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionKelly said the supply chains were “complex” and the level of detailed knowledge needed by officials to deal with a trade war in Northern Ireland had disappeared since Brexit.“When we were going through all of this in Brexit, issues like customs codes and checks, the government departments had teams of people who understood what all of this meant. But they have all been stood down,” he said.The separate tariffs on steel and aluminium added to the complexity and cost for businesses in Northern Ireland involved in aircraft-wing and wind-turbine blade manufacturing in Northern Ireland, he said.There was relief in the pharmaceutical industry in the republic, but the uncertainty over the tariffs on inward investment had led to a 30-50% decline in capital infrastructure spend in the first quarter of the year, Michael Lohan the chief executive of the Industrial Development Agency, the government’s foreign inward investment agency, told RTÉ.

The president displayed the top of his list from a podium in the White House Rose Garden, and later published a longer version. Note that the “tariffs charged to the USA” in Trump’s formulation include “trade barriers” so don’t necessarily align with the tariffs published by countries concerned.

The climate crisis is on track to destroy capitalism, a top insurer has warned, with the vast cost of extreme weather impacts leaving the financial sector unable to operate.The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks, said Günther Thallinger, on the board of Allianz SE, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies. He said that without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments.Global carbon emissions are still rising and current policies will result in a rise in global temperature between 2.2C and 3.4C above pre-industrial levels. The damage at 3C will be so great that governments will be unable to provide financial bailouts and it will be impossible to adapt to many climate impacts, said Thallinger, who is also the chair of the German company’s investment board and was previously CEO of Allianz Investment Management.The core business of the insurance industry is risk management and it has long taken the dangers of global heating very seriously. In recent reports, Aviva said extreme weather damages for the decade to 2023 hit $2tn, while GallagherRE said the figure was $400bn in 2024. Zurich said it was “essential” to hit net zero by 2050.Thallinger said: “The good news is we already have the technologies to switch from fossil combustion to zero-emission energy. The only thing missing is speed and scale. This is about saving the conditions under which markets, finance, and civilisation itself can continue to operate.”Nick Robins, the chair of the Just Transition Finance Lab at the London School of Economics, said: “This devastating analysis from a global insurance leader sets out not just the financial but also the civilisational threat posed by climate change. It needs to be the basis for renewed action, particularly in the countries of the global south.”“The insurance sector is a canary in the coalmine when it comes to climate impacts,” said Janos Pasztor, former UN assistant secretary-general for climate change.The argument set out by Thallinger in a LinkedIn post begins with the increasingly severe damage being caused by the climate crisis: “Heat and water destroy capital. Flooded homes lose value. Overheated cities become uninhabitable. Entire asset classes are degrading in real time.”“We are fast approaching temperature levels – 1.5C, 2C, 3C – where insurers will no longer be able to offer coverage for many of these risks,” he said. “The math breaks down: the premiums required exceed what people or companies can pay. This is already happening. Entire regions are becoming uninsurable.” He cited companies ending home insurance in California due to wildfires.Thallinger said it was a systemic risk “threatening the very foundation of the financial sector”, because a lack of insurance means other financial services become unavailable: “This is a climate-induced credit crunch.”“This applies not only to housing, but to infrastructure, transportation, agriculture, and industry,” he said. “The economic value of entire regions – coastal, arid, wildfire-prone – will begin to vanish from financial ledgers. Markets will reprice, rapidly and brutally. This is what a climate-driven market failure looks like.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionNo governments will realistically be able to cover the damage when multiple high-cost events happen in rapid succession, as climate models predict, Thallinger said. Australia’s disaster recovery spending has already increased sevenfold between 2017 and 2023, he noted.The idea that billions of people can just adapt to worsening climate impacts is a “false comfort”, he said: “There is no way to ‘adapt’ to temperatures beyond human tolerance … Whole cities built on flood plains cannot simply pick up and move uphill.”At 3C of global heating, climate damage cannot be insured against, covered by governments, or adapted to, Thallinger said: “That means no more mortgages, no new real estate development, no long-term investment, no financial stability. The financial sector as we know it ceases to function. And with it, capitalism as we know it ceases to be viable.”The only solution was to cut fossil fuel burning, or capture the emissions, he said, with everything else being a delay or distraction. He said capitalism must solve the crisis, starting with putting its sustainability goals on the same level as financial goals.Many financial institutions have moved away from climate action after the election of the US president, Donald Trump, who has called such action a “green scam”. Thallinger said in February: “The cost of inaction is higher than the cost of transformation and adaptation. If we succeed in our transition, we will enjoy a more efficient, competitive economy [and] a higher quality of life.”

The £3.6bn takeover of Royal Mail’s parent company will be completed this month, nearly a year after it was first agreed, as the Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský cleared the final regulatory hurdles standing in the way.International Distribution Services (IDS), the owner of the 508-year-old Royal Mail, said on Thursday the deal “may become or be declared unconditional” by 30 April, after a delay due to issues in Romania.The most pressing issue, UK government approval, was clinched in December after a state review of national security laws.However, Křetínský’s company had warned in March that the deal might not be finalised until the second quarter of this year due to regulatory issues relating to foreign direct investment in Romania.But in a triumph for the billionaire known as the “Czech sphinx”, Křetínský’s EP Group confirmed on Thursday that “all of the regulatory and anti-trust conditions in relation to the offer were satisfied”.View image in fullscreenThe deal will mean Royal Mail will be controlled by an overseas owner for the first time in its history, which can be traced as far back as 1516 under Henry VIII.The takeover comes with a number of conditions from the UK government, including that it will retain a “golden share” in IDS, which means any changes to Royal Mail’s ownership, tax residency or headquarters will need its approval. The UK owns golden shares in companies that are regarded as crucial to its security, including the weapons manufacturers BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce.The takeover had been called in for a review in August on national security grounds, because Royal Mail’s letter delivery still plays a crucial – albeit diminishing – role in the country’s communications infrastructure.The Royal Mail brand will also be protected for as long as EP owns the company.EP Group has also agreed to retain the universal service obligation, which guarantees a first-class postal service to anywhere in the UK for a fixed price six days a week, while Křetínský is in control. IDS has suggested second-class post could be reduced to every other weekday.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe government has blocked Royal Mail from making dividend payouts, or other similar payments to its owners, unless the company meets financial targets and has improved its postal delivery performance.Dividends and asset sales will also be blocked if they put the universal service at risk.Royal Mail is the latest British asset to be snapped up by Křetínský, who already owns 27% of West Ham United football club and 10% of the Sainsbury’s supermarket chain. He also holds stakes in several retailers including the US department store Macy’s, the trainer retailer Foot Locker, and the German retailer turned wholesaler Metro.Meanwhile, Křetínský’s EP Group, Royal Mail’s new owner, primarily runs coal, gas and power generation operations.

Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will put tariffs on goods from around the world, including a 10% charge on UK imports, has signalled the start of a global trade war.Although the UK faces a lower tariff than many other countries, for UK consumers there could still be some fallout. How it all plays out remains unclear.Prices in the UKView image in fullscreenAs it stands, the UK has not announced any retaliatory tariffs, so no US imports will leap in price. But if the government does decide to respond in kind, the prices of goods we buy in from the US could go up. The tariffs will be paid by the importing company but could be passed on to consumers (this becomes more likely where there is not a big profit margin). Such a situation would lead to inflation.Importers could decide to source products from countries without tariffs instead, which might hold down inflation. If there is a surplus of that stock – perhaps, the country supplying the goods also attracts US tariffs and so stops selling exporting there – prices could even come down.Part of the US trade complaint concerns the VAT applied in the UK to imported goods. However, VAT is not a tariff – it is charged on goods and services regardless of where they were produced – and is unlikely to be changed by the government as a result of Trump’s announcement. If it was, US goods would have an advantage over domestically produced items. (Tax Policy Associates has a good explanation of how it works in a supply chain.)Pensions and investmentsView image in fullscreenThe falls in stock markets around the world could have a big impact on your finances. Even if you do not invest in funds or stocks directly, your pension is likely to hold some of these assets unless you are very close to retirement.Many UK investors hold money in US shares – either directly or via funds – and will already have seen a fall in the value of their US investments. Other stock markets have dropped as trading has begun this morning, including the UK’s.Further falls will reduce the value of any investments you hold, which will be bad news if you need to cash them in before the markets have a chance to recover.If you are paying into a regular investment plan that buys into a fund, the money you are putting into the market now will buy you more units in the fund while the market is down. If and when there is a recovery, your monthly investment will be worth more than when the market is riding high.Tom Stevenson, an investment director at the fund management company Fidelity International, said: “It may sound counterintuitive but staying invested throughout times of volatility is the best strategy. When markets hit rocky waters, jumping in and out should be avoided, otherwise you run the risk of missing out on unexpected opportunities that might arise from market corrections.”Stevenson said it was “incredibly difficult” to predict how the stock market was going to behave. “Taking a long-term approach and remaining invested in spite of highs or lows is more likely to get you the outcome you want.”MortgagesView image in fullscreenLast month, when the Bank of England announced it was holding interest rates at 4.5% it said it thought rates were “on a gradually declining path”, but that there was “a lot of economic uncertainty at the moment”. That uncertainty included the threat of tariffs.Previously, forecasters had anticipated four rate cuts this year. We have seen one so far.An economic slowdown could force the Bank to consider cutting rates more quickly than had been expected as a way to stimulate the UK economy. This morning, the money markets had moved to suggest a cut in May is priced in. Mortgage rates are likely to fall if the markets anticipate more cuts over the next couple of years.JobsView image in fullscreenThe biggest threat from tariffs could be to jobs, with industries that export a lot to the US taking a hit as American consumers turn to products produced domestically, where they can.Carmakers are likely to be hit the hardest as they face a higher tariff of 25%. The IPPR thinktank has suggested more than 25,000 direct jobs in the car manufacturing industry could be at risk as exports to the US fall, with employees at Jaguar Land Rover and the Cowley Mini factory considered most vulnerable.There are rules on redundancies that companies must follow. To qualify for statutory redundancy pay you need to have been with your employer for at least two years.

Developing nations in south-east Asia, including wartorn and earthquake-hit Myanmar, and several African nations are among the trading partners facing the highest tariffs set by Donald Trump.Upending decades of US trade policy and threatening to unleash a global trade war, the US president announced a raft of tariffs on Wednesday that he said were designed to stop the US economy from being “cheated”.“This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history,” said Trump on Wednesday. “It’s our declaration of economic independence.”He hailed the moment as “liberation day”, but the tariffs are likely to be met with loud protests from some of the world’s weakest economies. One expert said Trump was likely to be targeting countries that received investment from China, regardless of the situation in that country. Chinese manufacturers have previously relocated to countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia not only due to lower operating costs, but also to avoid tariffs.The tariffs come as many countries in south-east Asia are already grappling with the fallout from the cuts to USAID, which provides humanitarian assistance to a region vulnerable to natural disasters and support for pro-democracy activists battling repressive regimes.Cambodia, a developing economy where 17.8% of the population live below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is the worst-hit country in the region with a tariff rate of 49%. More than half of the country’s factories are reportedly Chinese-owned, with the countries exports dominated by garments and footwear.Next worse-hit is the landlocked south-east Asian nation of Laos, a country heavily bombed by the US during the cold war, with 48%. According to the ADB, Laos has a poverty rate of 18.3%.Not far behind is Vietnam with 46% and Myanmar, a nation reeling from a devastating earthquake on Friday, and years of civil war following a 2021 military coup, with 44%.Indonesia, the biggest economy in south-east Asia, faces a 32% tariff rate, while Thailand, the second-largest, has been hit with a rate of 36%.Major US rival and trading partner China has been hit with a 34% reciprocal tariff, on top of the 20% levy already imposed.Dr Siwage Dharma Negara, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the tariffs on south-east Asian nations were intended to hurt China.“The administration thinks that by targeting these countries they can target Chinese investment in countries like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia. By targeting their products maybe it will affect Chinese exports and the economy,” he said.“The real target is China but the real impact on those countries will be quite significant because this investment creates jobs and export revenue.”Tariffs on countries such as Indonesia, he said, would be counterproductive for the US, and the detail of how they would be applied remained unclear.“Some garments and footwear [companies] are American brands like Nike, or Adidas, US companies that have factories in Indonesia. Will they face the same tariffs as well?” he said.Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, said countries in south-east Asia would be forced to reconsider their relationships with Washington. “A closer tilt towards China could be the result. It’s hard to have constructive, productive relations with a country that has just dropped a ton of bricks on your head,” said Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.“The world’s largest importer has now essentially hung a sign on its border saying ‘closed for business’,” he added. “We are now faced with two plausible scenarios: Either the impacted trade partners hold firm and retaliate in the hope that Trump will be forced to back down, or they look to cut deals with Trump in order to avoid the tariffs. It is unlikely that either scenario will end well.”Other nations among the hardest hit are several nations in Africa, including Lesotho – a country that Trump claimed “nobody has ever heard of” – with 50%, Madagascar with 47% and Botswana with 37%. Lesotho, a small mountainous kingdom surrounded by South Africa, has the second-highest level of HIV infection of the world, with almost one in four adults HIV-positive.In south Asia, Sri Lanka is facing a 44% tariff. In Europe, Serbia faces a 37% rate.In addition to the reciprocal tariffs on a few dozen countries, Trump will impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods. That tariff will go into effect on 5 April, while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April.The US president has justified the changes by saying they are retribution for countries that have long “cheated” America, and the levies will bring jobs back to the US.But economists have warned the sweeping changes will raise costs, threaten jobs, slow growth and isolate the US from a system of global trade it pioneered, and furthered over several decades.“This is how you sabotage the world’s economic engine while claiming to supercharge it,” said Nigel Green, the CEO of global financial advisory deVere Group.“The reality is stark: these tariffs will push prices higher on thousands of everyday goods – from phones to food – and that will fuel inflation at a time when it is already uncomfortably persistent.”

At 93-95 Victoria Street, Westminster, a blue plaque marks a piece of London history: the first ever branch of Pret a Manger opened on this spot on 22 July 1986. Nearly 40 years later, it is still going strong.It’s a nice story – but it’s not the whole story. Look closer and the plaque states that the first Pret sandwich shop opened “near here”. In fact, it was down the road, at 75b, now a branch of Toni & Guy. Except … that wasn’t the first shop, either. The original Pret opened two years earlier and five miles to the north, in Hampstead. It went bust after a year and the founder, Jeffrey Hyman, sold the name, branding and logo to Julian Metcalfe and Sinclair Beecham, who reopened in Westminster.That rocky beginning has been airbrushed from company history. Does it matter? Well, maybe. Pret is skilled at putting a neat spin on complex realities.Fast-forward to 2025 and London is packed with Prets. I meet Jack Chesher, the author of London: The Hidden Corners for Curious Wanderers, for a stroll through the City. As a historian, Chesher knows a lot about London’s early coffee houses; as a walking guide, he has witnessed first-hand the proliferation of Pret.I see my first Prets of the day when I get on the tube at Finsbury Park, one near each entrance. I get out at Moorgate and immediately see another. I do a quick search on my phone – 20 Prets pop up on the map, all within a few minutes’ walk. I’m not surprised: there are 274 branches in London, far more than in any other city. Manchester has 14, Birmingham 10, Edinburgh nine; a handful of cities have six, including Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol and Oxford. This is in contrast to, say, Greggs, which has just 42 branches in London and many more in northern England and Scotland. Tamsyn Halm, the editor of OOH (Out of Home) magazine, says: “Pret has become synonymous with the capital. If you go to London, you need to go to Pret.”Chesher and I meet at Leadenhall Market, which stands at what was once the centre of Roman London. There is no Pret in the market itself, but I spot one just outside, on Gracechurch Street. We head down an alley to the site of London’s first coffee house – now the Jamaica Wine House – which opened in 1652. Coffee houses quickly took off, says Chesher. It wasn’t about the coffee, which was described as a “syrup of soot and the essence of old shoes”, but the atmosphere. “These were buzzy, social spaces, where anyone from dockers to lawyers could go to read the newspapers and debate the issues of the day. They were known as penny universities.”It’s a far cry from a typical Pret, where customers grab a coffee to go, or sit with a sandwich at their laptops, headphones in. Christopher Yap, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Food Policy at City, University of London, thinks this is a peculiarly British phenomenon. “The work-food culture prioritises a particular form of eating,” he says. A 2023 survey of 35,000 workers across 26 countries found that the average lunch break in the UK is just 33 minutes and almost half of employees eat lunch alone. “We don’t have a culture of eating communally. This puts us in contrast with other European countries,” says Yap.What are all these harried, lonely Londoners buying from Pret? The latte (£3.80) is the bestseller and the top-selling foods are all baguettes: chicken caesar bacon, tuna mayo and cucumber, and cheddar and pickle. (I’m partial to a soy flat white and an avocado, olive and tomato baguette myself.) After criticism over rising prices, Pret made some cuts last year. That cheese and pickle baguette is down from £4.99 to £3.99, for example, and filter coffee is just 99p. Halm says: “This makes Pret a bit different to the crowd. No one else on the high street is giving away anything for less than a pound.”Prices within London can vary, however – it is more expensive to eat in, while branches at airports or train stations are usually pricier than the high street. A £3.99 tuna baguette will set you back £4.50 in a “transport hub”. A spokesperson for Pret says: “This is due to higher rents and labour costs for those shops, as they usually require different working hours or higher security checks.”View image in fullscreenAs we wander through the City, we pass many other coffee-and-sandwich chains, but none appear with such regularity as Pret. Once my eye is attuned to its pub-style hanging sign – a white star on a maroon background – I start seeing it everywhere. We head down Fleet Street and Chesher points out one of London’s oldest pubs, Ye Olde Cheshire Cheese (rebuilt in 1667 after the Great Fire). Right next to it? Pret. We continue on to the Strand and stop at Twinings, the oldest tea shop (opened 1706). The former bank next door? You guessed it – Pret.How does a sandwich shop afford such prime real estate? Pret, unsurprisingly, stopped being a two-man operation long ago. McDonald’s bought a 33% stake in the company in 2001. The fast food giant sold its stake to the private equity firm Bridgepoint Capital in 2008, which became the majority shareholder. Bridgepoint, in turn, sold Pret to JAB Holdings, a Luxembourg-based investment fund belonging to Germany’s billionaire Reimann family, in 2018 for a reported £1.5bn. All 12,000 Pret employees received a £1,000 payout. (In an interview last year, the CEO, Pano Christou, said staff are paid more than the London Living Wage, including bonuses.)After losses during the pandemic, Pret returned to profitability in 2022. UK sales in 2023 were up 18% year on year; the latest global figures, from the first half of 2024, show a 10% increase, to £569m. “After Covid, Pret has been on an extreme mission to grow,” says Halm. Its locations – on high streets, by offices, in train stations, at airports – make it very accessible. “Yes, the high street might look samey, but that’s how you establish quality,” she says. “People want premium options that are reliably good.”View image in fullscreenChris Young, the coordinator of the Real Bread Campaign, is more sceptical: “Chains can plug a gap in a high street, although typically they don’t go to a failing high street. It’s like the Starbucks effect in the 90s – it would target successful cafes and put them out of business.” Chains have economies of scale to undercut small businesses, he says, and huge marketing power. “People are drawn to big shiny things and start ignoring the local independent that’s been there for years.” But chains don’t necessarily benefit the local area, he says: “The money spent there is going to go whizzing out to fat-cat shareholders or private equity companies.”What about the jobs created when a chain moves in? “Their food is made in big factories on the edge of town. They create jobs for X number of people in the shop, but they could be better, more skilled jobs,” he says. The spokesperson points out that the Pret Foundation was founded in 1995 to donate unsold food, partner with charities and employ people facing homelessness. They also insist that “freshly handmade food has always been at the heart of what we do … Long before it was the norm, we were making sandwiches, wraps, baguettes and salads from scratch every morning in our on-site kitchens.”In 2018, however, it was reported that Pret’s baguettes were made on an industrial estate in France and frozen for up to a year. Today? “Our baguettes and rye rolls are brought to shops part-frozen and baked in our shop kitchens, which ensures that our customers get a really crisp and crunchy baguette,” says Pret’s spokesperson. “We want to ensure that the bread we use is consistent every day and from shop to shop.”Yap is not surprised. “In order for chains to function, they require a certain homogenisation – more ultra-processed foods (UPFs), additives and preservatives – to provide consistency of products across multiple sites,” he says.Even Pret? “Pret seemed to be doing things differently and better than other companies,” says Young. “The word ‘natural’ was in its logo, across the walls and the food.” In 2016, he contacted the company to ask exactly what was in its food (ingredient lists were not yet mandatory). “It turned out there was a whole list of artificial additives across the range. It was misleading – this was not natural food as anyone would have understood it.” Young complained to the Advertising Standards Agency and Westminster council. “It took 18 months. In the end, the ASA and Westminster agreed. Pret had to take ‘natural’ out of its logo.”View image in fullscreenPret still emphasises its health credentials. As well as sandwiches, it sells soups, salads, fruit and yoghurt pots. The Prets we pass on our walk advertise its “feelgood food”: “Nourish your body, lift your spirits … with fresh, wholesome ingredients.” The company prides itself on being ahead of the curve on healthy eating trends. “We introduced avocado to the high street. Today, avocado is everywhere, but back then it was still a bit of a novelty,” says the spokesperson. “And we were the first to bring an egg and spinach pot to the UK high street.”Does Pret’s food contain UPFs? “We don’t categorise any of our ingredients or products in this way,” says the spokesperson. “We try to reduce the additives we use in our products. We have replaced the emulsifiers in a number of our bread lines (eg our baguettes) with enzymes, but there are a few lines that still contain emulsifiers (eg our wraps). These have a number of functions, including improving the texture of the bread.”Pret always seems to bounce back from bad press. Recently, customers were up in arms over changes to Club Pret, a subscription that gave members up to five free drinks a day and a 20% discount on food for £30 a month. Last September, it changed to five half-price drinks a day for £5 a month.Far more serious were the deaths of two customers who had allergic reactions to Pret products. In 2016, Natasha Ednan-Laperouse, 15, died after eating a baguette that contained sesame, which wasn’t listed on the packaging. In 2017, Celia Marsh, 42, died after eating a flatbread labelled as dairy-free, which contained traces of dairy. Since then, the spokesperson says, Pret has established an industry-leading approach to helping customers with allergies, including developing an allergy plan.View image in fullscreenThe mind-boggling number of branches Chesher and I see on our walk suggests central London may have reached peak Pret – but the outer boroughs certainly haven’t. “For a long time, Pret’s strategy was to follow the skyscraper, but now we’re following the customer,” says the spokesperson. It has opened shops in London suburbs such as Bromley, Sutton and Harrow, often in bigger premises with outdoor seating. “We’re bringing Pret to people when they’re at the office, on the commute, working from home or simply spending time with friends and family.”Chesher sees this “Pretification” of London as part of a wider trend towards homogenisation. We stop off at Simpsons Tavern, London’s oldest chophouse, which opened in 1757 and was controversially closed in 2022 by its Bermuda-based owners, Tavor Holdings (there is a Crowdfunder campaign to reopen it). The boarded-up building is a forlorn sight. Chesher mentions the Prince Charles cinema, a cult venue that is also under threat of closure, and the loss of grassroots music venues. “Property owners prefer to put a Pret or a Leon in there,” he says. “We’re gradually losing these individual places.”Yap goes further. “One of the most concerning things about the way our cities are managed is the loss of genuine public space. The way urban space has been financialised is a deep concern for democracy. If that square metre has value as a shopping destination, the government then sells it off or enters into a partnership.” Recently redeveloped parts of London all have “a certain aesthetic”, he says. Young agrees: “When I want to see local character, colour and food, it’s difficult to do that in certain parts of London now.”After our walk, I head north to the Guardian’s offices in King’s Cross, an area of exactly that kind of redevelopment – much of it classed as the Orwellian-sounding “privately owned public space”. There are four branches of Pret within 10 minutes’ walk of Guardian HQ, one just a few doors away.If you know a part of London that is still missing the maroon sign, you may be either relieved or disappointed to know that the openings may soon dry up. London is no longer Pret’s top priority. Since January 2023, 87% of new openings have been outside the capital and more than half have been outside the UK (£1 in every £4 spent at Pret is now international). In 2023, Pret opened 81 new shops worldwide, including in the US, Canada, India, Greece and Spain. New York has the highest sales after London and the first shops recently opened in Johannesburg and Lisbon.Pret, it seems, has conquered the capital. Next stop? The rest of the world.

The UK has launched a formal process to retaliate against Donald Trump’s tariffs if it does not secure a trade deal with the US, the business secretary has said.Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons he was taking the first step towards retaliatory action against the US so as “to keep all options on the table”. Ministers are preparing to publish a list of US products that may face tariffs later today.It is the first time the UK government has explicitly threatened to retaliate and follows Trump’s announcement that he will introduce a blanket 10% import tax on British goods and 25% on cars.Reynolds said ministers were still pursuing an economic deal with the US as the priority but “we do reserve the right to take any action we deem necessary if a deal is not secured”.Officials will consult businesses on possible retaliatory measures over the next four weeks, until 1 May.“To enable the UK to have every option open to us in future, I am today launching a request for input on the implications for British businesses of possible retaliatory action,” Reynolds said. “This is a formal step, necessary for us to keep all options on the table.”“This exercise will also give businesses the chance to have their say and influence the design of any possible UK action.”The measure will be withdrawn if a deal with the US is struck. “If we are in a position to agree an economic deal with the US that lifts the tariffs that have been placed on our industries, this request for input will be paused, and any measures flowing from that will be lifted,” Reynolds told MPs.Ministers are hopeful about the prospect of striking a speedy economic deal that would lift the US tariffs on the UK. Downing Street said negotiations with the US over an economic deal were at an “advanced stage”.“Our focus is to negotiate this economic deal with the US, but not taking any options off the table, and we’ll continue to respond in a way that serves UK interests,” the prime minister’s spokesperson said.On Wednesday night, Trump unveiled sweeping US import taxes on countries worldwide in a move that experts say will change the global economic landscape.UK ministers have taken heart from the fact that 10% is the lowest tariff that has been imposed by the US, compared with 20% for the EU.Keir Starmer convened heads of business in Downing Street on Thursday morning and told them that “clearly there will be an economic impact” from US tariffs but that ministers would respond with “cool and calm heads”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe prime minister told business officials that Trump “acted for his country, and that is his mandate. Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.” He said that while the tariffs were “a challenge”, the UK was in a “better position than a lot of other countries”.The move to prepare retaliatory action risks angering the Trump administration. The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, warned countries on Wednesday night not to retaliate and said that “as long as you don’t retaliate this is the high end of the number”.Asked about Bessent’s remarks, Reynolds said that while the ministers would “give ourselves the tools that we need to respond”, they were still focused on securing a deal.“Whilst we have a chance of making the relationship between the UK and US even stronger than it is, the message I get very strongly from businesses is remain at the table, don’t overreact, stick with the calm-headed approach the government has had to date and we’re going to do that,” Reynolds told Sky News.“I hope perhaps if we are successful there will be a template for other countries to resolve some of these issues.”He struck an optimistic tone and said he “absolutely” believed the deal could be done. “We have been able to progress talks on a range of areas on a timescale which to be honest has delivered in days and weeks more progress than we’ve had in years,” he told LBC.Reynolds revealed, however, that Trump’s team had raised objections to UK food safety standards, reigniting long-running tensions over the UK’s ban on US chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef.“We have a food standards regime which we’re very committed to in the UK which they have some objections to. So they put a number of factors into this,” Reynolds told BBC Breakfast.

If you’re just joining us, here’s a rundown of the latest developments:

US President Donald Trump has unveiled sweeping tariffs on some of the country’s largest trading partners. Trump said he would impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported foreign goods in addition to “reciprocal tariffs” ranging from 20% to more than 40% on dozens of countries.

China was hit with a 34% fee, in addition to a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports already in place, while the EU will now be levied at 20% and Japan at 24%. Trump said America had been “looted, pillaged and raped” by its trading partners: “In many cases, the friend is worse than the foe.”

The 10% universal tariff will go into effect on 5 April while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April.

Stocks dived after the announcement, with technology shares particularly hard hit, while the price of gold hit a record high as investors scrambled for safety. Japan’s Nikkei was down 2.8% on opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 2% and Australian shares fell 2%.

US tariffs are a “major blow” to the world economy and the EU is preparing counter measures that will apply if negotiations fail, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has said. “The global economy will massively suffer, uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism,” she said.

China’s commerce ministry called for Washington to “immediately cancel” the new tariffs, warning they “endanger global economic development” and would hurt US interests and international supply chains. It called for dialogue and added: “There is no winner in a trade war, and there is no way out for protectionism.”

War-torn and economically struggling countries are among those facing the highest tariffs. Myanmar, which is in the middle of a civil war and which was hit by an earthquake last week, was hit with a rate of 44%, while Sri Lanka is facing a 44% tariff and Lesotho a rate of 50%.

The tariffs also hit the Heard Island and McDonald Islands, a group of barren, uninhabited volcanic islands near Antarctica, which form an external territory of Australia, as well as Norfol Island, which said it had no known exports to the US. Albanese said on Thursday: “Norfolk Island has got a 29% tariff. I’m not quite sure that Norfolk Island, with respect to it, is a trade competitor with the giant economy of the United States, but that just shows and exemplifies the fact that nowhere on earth is safe from this.”
European stock markets are set to join the global selloff in around 20 minutes when trading opens.The futures markets are indicating that the EuroSTOXX50, which tracks the largest fifty listed companies in the eurozone, will drop around 1.8%.Shares are also forecast to slide in London, where FTSE 100 futures are currently down around 1%.Wall Street is also heading for a chilly bath – S&P 500 futures were down 3% last night.The mood is highly anxious, as Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, reports:
‘’A brutal round of trade top Trumps is sending a shiver through global markets. As threats have turned into facts, the plan for blanket tariffs on US trading partners has unnerved investors. As Trump has ripped up trade norms, it’s spread fresh worries about the implication for the global economy. Futures trades indicate a sharp fall for the S&P 500 with other indices around the world looking set to follow suit.
A baseline 10% tariff is the starting point, with 20% tariffs set to land on imports from the EU, and much steeper duties imposed on countries in Asia with China facing 34% duties. There will also be 25% tariffs slapped on foreign made cars sold in the US.
British business minister Jonathan Reynolds has warned the tariffs announced by Donald Trump last night is a threat to the UK, because of the damage it will cause to global trade.Speaking to Times Radio this morning, Reynolds explained that anything that disrupts the global trading system is a threat to the UK.And even though the UK was hit with a smaller tariff than many other countries – 10%, rather than the EU’s 20% – Reynolds said he was “disappointed” to be tariffed at all.He said:
Any barrier to trade, particularly between the UK and our major trading partner, which the US is, is a disappointment to me. It’s a challenge.
“So, I recognise that the UK is in a better position than a lot of other countries from what was announced last night, but I was still disappointed.”
Reynolds said the UK should ignore calls to trigger a larger trade war by retaliating. Instead, he said the British government woud stay calm and to talk to the US, and continue the work towards reaching an economic deal.With the dollar sliding on the international markets, the British pound has hit its highest since last October.Sterling has gained almost one cent so far today, touching $1.31 for the first time since last October.The euro is up almost a cent too, at $1.095, as the dollar suffers a post-Liberation Day hangover.Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, says financial market participants “view the dollar not as a haven, but as the asset most exposed to the utter incoherence and nonsense emanating from the White House.”Norway – which is not an EU member – has said it will seek to negotiate with the US regarding the 15% tariff imposed on it.“This is bad news, it is very serious,” prime minister Jonas Gahr Støere told public broadcaster NRK. He added:
There is an opening for negotiations here, the Americans say, and we will use that in every possible way that we can.
António Costa, president of the European Council, has said the EU will remain a “staunch advocate for free and fair trade” and urged the bloc to move forward with trade deals with South America, Mexico and India. In a post on X he said:
Trade is a powerful engine of global prosperity. The EU will remain a staunch advocate for free and fair trade.
We will engage with all our partners and continue to strengthen and expand our trade network. Now is the time to move forward with the agreements with #Mercosur, #Mexico and decisively advance in the negotiations with #India and other key partners.
Thailand, which was hit with tariffs of 36%, has said its exporters should seek new markets, adding that it had prepared “mitigation measures” to support those who rely mainly on the US.The US is the country’s largest export market, with the country exporting electronics, machinery and agricultural goods.In its statement, the Thai government said it understood the US’s wish to “rebalance trade relationships” and that it had “expressed its readiness to engage in dialogue with the United States at the earliest opportunity to achieve a fair trade balance”.If you’re just joining us, here’s a rundown of the latest developments:

US President Donald Trump has unveiled sweeping tariffs on some of the country’s largest trading partners. Trump said he would impose a 10% universal tariff on all imported foreign goods in addition to “reciprocal tariffs” ranging from 20% to more than 40% on dozens of countries.

China was hit with a 34% fee, in addition to a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports already in place, while the EU will now be levied at 20% and Japan at 24%. Trump said America had been “looted, pillaged and raped” by its trading partners: “In many cases, the friend is worse than the foe.”

The 10% universal tariff will go into effect on 5 April while the reciprocal tariffs will begin on 9 April.

Stocks dived after the announcement, with technology shares particularly hard hit, while the price of gold hit a record high as investors scrambled for safety. Japan’s Nikkei was down 2.8% on opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 2% and Australian shares fell 2%.

US tariffs are a “major blow” to the world economy and the EU is preparing counter measures that will apply if negotiations fail, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has said. “The global economy will massively suffer, uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism,” she said.

China’s commerce ministry called for Washington to “immediately cancel” the new tariffs, warning they “endanger global economic development” and would hurt US interests and international supply chains. It called for dialogue and added: “There is no winner in a trade war, and there is no way out for protectionism.”

War-torn and economically struggling countries are among those facing the highest tariffs. Myanmar, which is in the middle of a civil war and which was hit by an earthquake last week, was hit with a rate of 44%, while Sri Lanka is facing a 44% tariff and Lesotho a rate of 50%.

The tariffs also hit the Heard Island and McDonald Islands, a group of barren, uninhabited volcanic islands near Antarctica, which form an external territory of Australia, as well as Norfol Island, which said it had no known exports to the US. Albanese said on Thursday: “Norfolk Island has got a 29% tariff. I’m not quite sure that Norfolk Island, with respect to it, is a trade competitor with the giant economy of the United States, but that just shows and exemplifies the fact that nowhere on earth is safe from this.”
Many people have been asking how the Trump administration worked out its tariffs, while many countries have been arguing the numbers bear no relationship with reality.New Zealand’s trade minister insisted his country did not apply a 20% tariff to US imports, as suggested by Washington, while Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, insisted the US tariffs had “no basis in logic” and that “a reciprocal tariff would be zero, not 10%.”One journalist claims to have discovered the answer, and analysts are suggesting he is likely correct.“They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us,” financial writer James Surowiecki wrote in a post on X.“So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us.”Then that number was divided in half as Trump said he was being “kind”. He also said the tariff calculations included “currency manipulation and trade barriers”.An explanation of the calculations later posted on the office of the US trade representative appeared to confirm that the administration had used trade deficits divided by imports.Mike O’Rourke, chief marketing strategist at Jones Trading, was quoted by CNN as saying:
While these new tariff measures have been framed as ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, it turns out the policy is actually one of surplus targeting …
There does not appear to have been any tariffs used in the calculation of the rate. The Trump administration is specifically targeting nations with large trade surpluses with the United States relative to their exports to the United States.
The US tariffs are “highly unreasonable” and the government plans “serious negotiations” with Washington, Taiwan has said. Cabinet spokeswoman Michelle Lee said:
The Executive Yuan found the decision highly unreasonable and deeply regretted it, and will initiate serious negotiations with the United States.
The tariffs announced on Wednesday included a 32% levy on Taiwan.Semiconductor chips, a sector that Taiwan dominates and has been a source of friction between Washington and Taipei, were excluded from the levies.But, analysts warned that tariffs on components would have a knock-on effect for the critical chip industry.Taiwan had drawn up plans to help local industries hit by possible US tariffs, minister of cconomic affairs Kuo Jyh-huei said Tuesday, ahead of Trump’s announcement.Steep US tariffs on imported automobiles have officially kicked in.The 25% tariffs took effect at 12:01am ET (0401 GMT) on foreign-made cars and light trucks, with automobile parts to be hit no later than 3 May, according to a Federal Register notice, AFP reported.Ursula von der Leyen says the US and the EU over the past 80 years have greatly benefited from their trading relationship, with consumers enjoying reduced prices and businesses benefiting from “huge opportunities” leading to “unprecedented growth and prosperity”.
At the same time we know that the global trading system has serious deficiencies. I agree with President Trump that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules and I’m ready to support any efforts to make the global trading system fit for the realities of the global economy.
But I also want to be clear. Reaching for tariffs as your first and last tool will not fix it. This is why from the outset we have always been ready to negotiate with the United States to remove the remaining barriers to trans-Atlantic trade.
A bit more from von der Leyen’s press conference. She said all businesses “big and small” would suffer “from day one”, affected by disruptions to supply chains and greater uncertainty as well as “burdensome bureaucracy”.The costs of doing business with the United States will “drastically increase”, she said.
What is more there seems to be no order in the disorder. No clear path through the complexity and chaos as all US trading partners are hit.
For weeks, Donald Trump and his aides sought to brand Wednesday as “liberation day” in America. Many in the US could be forgiven for wondering what exactly they’ve just been liberated from.Trump likes to present the world as black and white. The US is either winning or losing. A policy, deal or plan is the best or the worst. A person, country or company is supporting or screwing you.There is rarely space for nuance, time for complexity, or tolerance for inconvenient facts. The simplicity of this narrative is its power.By Trump’s telling, the US is about to raise trillions of dollars for the federal government by taxing the world, not its citizens: a typically black and white choice.But reality is often more complex than rhetoric. There are myriad shades of gray.Import tariffs are not paid by other countries. They are paid by importers – in this case, US firms and companies – buying goods from overseas. These costs often trickle down through the economy, raising prices at every clink in the chain.Trump promised lower prices. He is betting his tariffs won’t raise them too high, for too long.“This is going to be a big moment,” he said on Wednesday. “I think you’re going to remember today.”He may well be right.US tariffs are a “major blow” to the world economy and the EU is preparing counter measures that will apply if negotiations fail, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has said.“We are already finalising the first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel,” she said in a statement read out in Uzbekistan ahead of an EU-Central Asia partnership summit.“And we’re now preparing for further countermeasures to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail.”Trump earlier unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the US with a higher 20% rate for the EU.Von der Leyen said the consequences of the US tariffs would be “immense”.
The global economy will massively suffer, uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism.
The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe also for the most vulnerable countries, which are now subject to some of the highest US tariffs.
Shares in Hanoi have also plunged by more than 5% after markets opened on Thursday; Trump hit Vietnam with particularly harsh tariffs of 46%.The Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index sank 5.6 percent, or 13.42 points, to 224.71.Japan’s trade minister says Tokyo told Washington that sweeping new US tariffs that include a 24% levy on Japanese imports are “extremely regrettable”, according to AFP.“I have conveyed that the unilateral tariff measures taken by the US are extremely regrettable, and I have again strongly urged [Washington] not to apply them to Japan,” Yoji Muto told reporters, adding that he spoke with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick before Donald Trump’s announcement.“I also explained in detail how the US tariffs would adversely affect the US economy by undermining the capacity of Japanese companies to invest in the United States,” said Muto.“We had a frank discussion on how to pursue cooperation in the interest of both Japan and the United States that does not rely on tariffs,” Muto said.Chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi also told reporters that the tariffs may contravene World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and the two countries’ trade treaty.“We have serious concerns as to consistency with the WTO agreement and Japan-US trade agreement,” he told reporters.Japan has also failed to win exclusion from 25-percent tariffs on auto imports due to come into force later on Thursday.Last year, vehicles accounted for around 28% of Japan’s 21.3 trillion yen ($142 bn) of US-bound exports, and roughly eight% of all Japanese jobs are tied to the sector.China’s commerce ministry has called for Washington to “immediately cancel” sweeping new tariffs, warning they “endanger global economic development” and would hurt US interests and international supply chains.“China urges the US to immediately cancel unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with trade partners through equal dialogue,” the ministry said, adding: “There is no winner in a trade war, and there is no way out for protectionism.”Trump has hit China with particularly stinging tariffs of 34% in addition to already existing 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports.Beijing also accused the United States of a “typical unilateral bullying practice”.Trump has said his tariffs are “reciprocal” but many experts say his administration’s estimates for levies placed on US imports by other countries are wildly exaggerated.“The US claims to have suffered losses in international trade, using so-called ’reciprocity’ as an excuse to raise tariffs on all trade partners,” Beijing said.“This approach disregards the balance of interests achieved through years of multilateral trade negotiations and ignores the fact that the US has long profited significantly from international trade,” it added.In news you didn’t know you needed:A group of barren, uninhabited volcanic islands near Antarctica, covered in glaciers and home to penguins, have been swept up in Donald Trump’s trade war, as the US president hit them with a 10% tariff on goods.Heard Island and McDonald Islands, which form an external territory of Australia, are among the remotest places on earth, accessible only via a two-week boat voyage from Perth on Australia’s west coast. They are completely uninhabited, with the last visit from people believed to be nearly 10 years ago.Nevertheless, Heard and McDonald Islands featured in a list released by the White House of countries that would have new trade tariffs imposed.Read the full story below.