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Neil Paine
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? With roughly a week until Selection Sunday, we’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
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Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 29 current teams
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Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 14 current teams
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Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 13 current teams
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
SEC
9.8 expected bids (8.8 at-large)
Locks (7)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 7, 8:51 p.m.
Margins can be razor-thin on the bubble at this time of year, as illustrated by the former “work to do” Aggies. Their odds would have dropped into the 60% range with a loss in triple-overtime at LSU Saturday but instead rose to 80% — and got them promoted up — with the marathon win. Bucky McMillan’s squad is still not exactly a “lock,” but six Quadrant 1 victories and ranking top 10 among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low-40s nationally) give A&M a leg up on other SEC bubble hopefuls heading into the SEC tournament.
Next game: SEC tournament second round (Thursday)
Updated: March 7, 2:37 p.m.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back contests at Oklahoma and at home against Arkansas to close the SEC regular season. At 74% in the at-large odds, they’re a bit less safe than they seemed a few games ago, though they entered Saturday tied for eighth among SEC teams in the résumé average (and in the mid-40s nationally) — a favorable spot in a projected 10- or 11-bid league. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-11 vs. 16-14), even if it’s against a much easier schedule (63rd hardest vs. fifth). That still ought to help them going into the conference tourney.
Next game: SEC tournament second round (Thursday)
Work to do (3)
Updated: March 7, 11:10 p.m.
Just when it seemed to be on track to shore up its at-large résumé, Texas dropped its final two games of the regular season on the road at Arkansas and at home vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns now enter the SEC tournament as one of the more confusing bubble teams: They have seven Quadrant 1 wins on the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even Tennessee) — and they split their regular-season series against both A&M and UGA. But they’re also only borderline top 50 in the national résumé rankings, 11th best in what might be a 10-bid SEC, and their consensus at-large forecast dropped to 55% after Saturday’s defeat. A few wins in the SEC tourney would certainly help those odds.
Next game: SEC tournament first round vs. Ole Miss (Wednesday)
Updated: March 7, 10:54 p.m.
The Tigers lost their regular-season finale at Alabama to fall to 2-8 in their past 10 games. The loss drops their consensus chances into the 20% range — and that’s probably very much on the generous side. That said, they aren’t without a case for the committee, headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, per the BPI. And, they are still mid-40s in the national résumé ranking average. Ordinarily, that would put a team directly on the bubble — but with 15 losses, it’s historically almost impossible to make the tournament as an at-large team. Auburn’s last chance to make the field of 68 likely comes down to going on an unlikely heater through the SEC tournament.
Next game: SEC tournament first round vs. Mississippi State (Wednesday)
Updated: March 8, 9:26 a.m.
The Sooners are a last-minute Bubble Watch entry after knocking off Texas on the road Saturday in overtime. It was the fourth consecutive victory for Porter Moser’s squad — sixth in eight, a stretch that includes four of this season’s five Quadrant 1 wins. The forecast models are dubious OU can make a real case for an at large (the consensus odds sit at just 12%), but given the chaos around the SEC bubble, and the fact that the conference projects to send 11 teams according to Bracketology, this team is suddenly on the radar.
Next game: SEC tournament first round vs. South Carolina (Wednesday)
BIG TEN
9.3 expected bids; 8.3 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 7, 11:45 p.m.
A few weeks after their at-large odds dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins won four of their final five regular-season contests — including against Nebraska and USC back-to-back. The latter win was also their fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, putting their résumé around the nation’s top 30 rankings and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. Mick Cronin’s team is playing well recently, and its consensus at-large odds are now at 97% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
Next game: Big Ten tournament (March 10-15)
Updated: March 7, 8:02 p.m.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second three-game winning streak of the season — first since late November — beating Purdue, Penn State and Indiana in a crucial bubble contest to close out the regular season. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 91%, further solidifying a résumé that’s top 40 in the national rankings (and no worse than ninth in the Big Ten). While not a lock yet, they’ll enter the conference tournament with some momentum.
Next game: Big Ten tournament (March 10-15)
Updated: March 8, 7:32 p.m.
Iowa went cold over the final eight regular-season contests, losing six, including in overtime Sunday at Nebraska. Since four of those defeats were to Quadrant 1-A opponents, however, the Hawkeyes are holding steady here. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — no worse than eighth best in the Big Ten — and they have a consensus at-large probability in the 90s. Despite this recent slump, there aren’t too many conference tournament scenarios in which they would somehow be left out of the bracket.
Next game: Big Ten tournament (March 10-15)
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 7, 8:06 p.m.
Indiana’s downward spiral from once-promising tournament odds to big-time bubble trouble continued with Saturday’s loss to Ohio State. Its conditional at-large probability has plummeted down to around 40%, and its résumé now ranks outside the top 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would deserve the last of those nods over USC — but a nine-bid conference will leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
Next game: Big Ten tournament (March 10-15)
BIG 12
7.9 expected bids (6.9 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kansas Jayhawks
BYU Cougars
Should be in (2)
Updated: March 7, 4:18 p.m.
The Horned Frogs’ case for the Big 12’s final at-large bid was perhaps solidified Saturday with their eighth win in nine games, including over Cincinnati in what might have amounted to an early NCAA tournament play-in. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen to nearly 80%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, thanks to downing Texas Tech earlier in the week and notching their fifth Quadrant 1 win. It would be surprising if TCU doesn’t hear its name on Selection Sunday.
Next game: Big 12 tournament second round (Wednesday)
Updated: March 7, 8:54 a.m.
A third straight loss — and sixth in nine games — for UCF, by 15 points at West Virginia in Friday’s regular-season finale, has left the Knights’ tourney fate much more in doubt than it seemed not long ago. Once upon a time, they peaked as high as 96% in the at-large model consensus, but now that number is 76% — barely in “Should Be In” territory. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid, and UCF still clings to that spot with a No. 34 national ranking in the résumé average. But Cincinnati (No. 52) and TCU (No. 37) have zoomed up the ranks recently, making UCF’s grip on one of the final Big 12 tourney spots no sure thing anymore.
Next game: Big 12 tournament second round (Wednesday)
Work to do (1)
Updated: March 8, 9:26 a.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge — six wins, some quite impressive, in seven games entering Saturday — was nice while it lasted. But the regular-season finale loss to TCU might have been the final nail in their at-large coffin. They’re still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average, compared to the rest of the bubble, which is generally around No. 45. They also now have 14 losses, despite playing the nation’s 62nd-toughest schedule. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. BYU. But their at-large chances in the consensus model have fallen to just above 10% as they look ahead to the Big 12 tourney.
Next game: Big 12 tournament first round vs. Utah (Tuesday)
ACC
7.7 expected bids; 6.7 at-large
Locks (4)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Should be in (3)
Updated: March 7, 2:16 p.m.
After five losses in six games, the Tigers took care of business as heavy favorites over Georgia Tech to close out the regular season on Saturday. It didn’t really change things for them, however, with their consensus at-large chances remaining at 94%. Clemson will end up ranked no worse than seventh in the ACC in résumé average — still high enough in the ACC’s pecking order to feel optimistic about its chances ahead of the league tournament, in what’s looking like an eight-bid conference.
Next game: ACC tournament second round (Wednesday)
Updated: March 7, 4:25 p.m.
The Hurricanes were on a roll in ACC play, picking up résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and SMU, among others — but lost a nail-biter hosting Louisville on Saturday to close out the regular season. It really shouldn’t sting that much, however: Miami’s at-large chances (90%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. The Canes are still in fine shape to make the tournament.
Next game: ACC tournament quarterfinals (Thursday)
Updated: March 7, 4:24 p.m.
With six losses in seven games, including blowing an 89% win probability against Stanford on Saturday, NC State’s at-large odds are down to just 80% from their peak of 98% and therefore back in “should be in” territory. The Wolfpack still rank mid-30s nationally in the résumé ratings and no worse than seventh on the résumé list in the ACC, with a big gap to the next-best team, SMU. But for all of their performance in the predictive ratings, where they’re a top-35 team, they now have 12 losses and aren’t making things easy for themselves.
Next game: ACC tournament second round (Wednesday)
Work to do (4)
Updated: March 7, 4:40 p.m.
The Mustangs sat at 94% in the consensus at-large chances about two weeks ago, but a four-game losing streak at the worst possible time (to Cal, Stanford, Miami and Florida State), coupled with other developments across the bubble, has dropped them to just 39% — a stunning fall from bubble grace. They are now fighting to remain eighth in the ACC’s tournament pecking order — and fighting to make a case that the conference should get eight bids, too. They have a cushion over Cal and Virginia Tech in terms of overall résumé quality, but they’ve lost to the Bears head-to-head, and the Hokies have more high-quality wins. The Mustangs will need to keep building their argument in the conference tournament.
Next game: ACC tournament (March 10-14)
Updated: March 8, 9:04 a.m.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal have jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1-A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. They’re outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, well below both those of the Mustangs and Hokies, but the model consensus now gives them a 28% at-large chance on the eve of the ACC tournament.
Next game: ACC tournament first round vs. Pittsburgh (Tuesday)
Updated: March 7, 2:04 p.m.
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with wins over Wake Forest and Boston College, but its résumé could have used an upset over UVA in the regular-season finale Saturday. That didn’t happen, despite the Hokies pulling even with 11 minutes to play, meaning their consensus at-large chances are still just 17% on the eve of the ACC tourney. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1-A wins and a résumé rating just inside the top 50, so their case isn’t completely without merits — depending on what happens in the next week. But right now, they’re on the outside looking in.
Next game: ACC tournament first round vs. Wake Forest (Tuesday)
BIG EAST
3.1 expected bids (2.1 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Should be in (0)
None
Work to do (0)
OTHERS
Locks (3)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Should be in (3)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: March 7. 8:06 a.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, with a string of close wins. But in overtime Friday night, it survived a visit to Ohio University to finish the regular season without a loss. It’s true that the RedHawks are outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation, making their potential at-large case historically unique. But winning matters! As the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I, it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they fall in the MAC tournament.
Next game: MAC tournament quarterfinals vs. Massachusetts (Thursday)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: March 7, 6:06 p.m.
The past couple of weeks have been a roller coaster for the Billikens — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne, then on Saturday lost the regular-season finale to George Mason in a 29-point rout. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point, but that figure falls to just 76% on the eve of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re still borderline top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a good chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. (BPI projections favor them to win the conference tournament.) But they’re a bit less certain than earlier in the year.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: March 10, 9:37 a.m.
We’ve mentioned often how Santa Clara’s fate would revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos might have sealed that outcome against Saint Mary’s on Monday, thanks to Sash Gavalyugov‘s clutch 3 in the closing seconds to secure their first WCC final appearance since 2007. The Broncos’ model chances are up to 88% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1-A win of the year. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they could go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, but beating SMC might have put them over the top.
Next game: WCC tournament final vs. Gonzaga (Tuesday)
Work to do (5)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: March 7, 8:12 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, but the forecast models now give it a 60% consensus at-large chance after its win at Dayton on Friday night. The Rams are 2-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including two losses to A-10 rival Saint Louis. But they are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (low-40s nationally), and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 13 of 14, the sole slip-up coming against the Billikens in a game they led by double digits in the second half. It still remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid, but that has happened in three of five years and VCU is now trending to join Saint Louis in the NCAA field.
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals (Friday)
Updated: March 7, 8:12 a.m.
As the Aztecs seemingly slid out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games, they recovered some to outlast UNLV in the regular-season finale on Friday. Despite the win, their consensus at-large chances are just 17%, and their No. 54 ranking nationally on the résumé list would put them on the wrong side of the bubble right now. On the positive side, the Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons, and New Mexico’s résumé is little better than SDSU’s. The Aztecs are one of the teams most vulnerable to a bid thief during conference tournaments.
Next game: Mountain West tournament quarterfinals (Thursday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Updated: March 8, 4:06 p.m.
The Bulls have now won 12 of 13 games, including nine straight, after blowing out Charlotte to end the regular season. Their consensus at-large chances remain in the neighborhood of 20%, so it’s unclear whether they’ve done enough to make the field as a potential at-large pick compared with other bubble teams. USF is 23-8 overall (against the No. 91-ranked schedule) with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and around 50th in the national résumé rankings. It’s undeniably on a hot streak and the BPI’s favorite to win the American tournament (with a 43.4% chance), but Joe Lunardi has the conference down to send just one team to the Big Dance at the moment.
Next game: AAC tournament (Wednesday-March 15)
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Updated: March 8, 9:32 a.m.
The Broncos return to Bubble Watch courtesy of five straight wins (and seven in nine) to go with losses from others in the Mountain West bubble crew. Before you get too excited: Boise State is still just 60th in the résumé rankings and has lost 11 games against the nation’s 78th-most difficult schedule. But it also has a Quadrant 1-A win over Saint Mary’s. Perhaps more importantly, it is a combined 3-1 against SDSU and New Mexico, with the sole loss to the Aztecs coming in triple overtime in early January. The Broncos’ at-large odds are remote (14%), but if this is a two-bid conference, they have a case for a nod.
Next game: Mountain West tournament first round vs. San José State (Wednesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: March 7, 6:32 p.m.
Before Wednesday’s loss to Colorado State, the Lobos had made a strong case to be the Mountain West’s second bid as an at-large (if necessary). But that loss, plus the one Saturday to Utah State, has complicated the MWC bubble picture more than ever. The Lobos’ updated chances (14% conditional at-large odds) once again trail San Diego State’s (17%). Both teams are outside the top 50 of the national résumé ranking, so neither is in good shape ahead of the conference tournament. The Lobos might still own the edge, with one more combined Quadrant 1 and 2 win than the Aztecs, and also recently evened the head-to-head scales. But very little separates them — and the Mountain West is looking like only a two-bid conference.
Next game: Mountain West tournament quarterfinals (Thursday)
Glossary of terms
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Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
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Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
